We are getting to the business end of the Article 50 process. A Withdrawal Agreement, if there is to be one without extending the two year period, has to be reached by October or at the absolute latest by the end of the year. But we are a long way behind schedule and the talks seem to be virtually stalled. The White Paper, released last week and full of wishful thinking is not going to help. Neither Brussels or the Brexiteers will accept it (HERE).
It feels as if we're still in the middle of the campaign. The red bus may have been parked up but the media continues to be full of Brexit stories and business and industry still have no idea where we're likely to end up.
With no majority in parliament for a hard Brexit or a soft one now the Brexiteers have vowed to oppose the White Paper, we are on the way to a full blown crisis
The EU are said (HERE) to be on the verge of releasing a document warning member states and institutions to step up plans to prepare for the UK to leave without a deal:
"The 15-page draft, seen by RTÉ News, issues strongly worded guidelines to the 27 member states to deepen contingency planning for the UK crashing out of the EU in March next year without a deal.
"It paints a picture of long lines of freight traffic at ports, and implications for pharmaceuticals, financial services and aviation. It is understood the paper was drafted two days ago, ahead of the publication of the UK's White Paper on the future relationship yesterday, but after the three-page Chequers Statement on Friday 6 July".
The Sun newspaper recently reported (HERE) the government is planning to announce 300 contingency measures to prepare for a no deal exit, including the "stockpiling of processed food". But they paint the plans as something the government is just doing to show that walking away is "not a bluff". In other words, don't worry it's only to put pressure on Brussels. The report says:
"Brexit department insiders also claim plans have also been “wargamed” to ease pressure on Calais, including importing and exporting more goods through Holland, Belgium and directly from Spain".
What a pity that during the campaign, nobody on the leave side told us that Brexit might involve the kind of things we last saw in 1940, with government departments looking at emergency measures to ensure food is available on supermarket shelves, keep medicines at hand and airlines flying. Next we'll be digging for Brexit and sending in our aluminium pans to make aircraft.
I still do not believe no deal is conceivable but this kind of planning, on both sides, is intended to send the message that we're prepared to take it to the wire if necessary. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. But it's an indication that matters are getting serious. The next few months will be crucial.
We import 30% of our food from Europe and while we export a lot to Europe, the continent is more or less self sufficient anyway and our exports are just a tiny fraction of what they eat. It doesn't take a genius to see that we are in much more trouble than they are.
