Colm McCarthy in the Irish Independent, takes a pot at Mrs May's trip to Africa last week to drum up post Brexit trade (HERE). It's behind a paywall but you can read the whole thing HERE. I think it's worth reading for some of the comparative figures about our trade with Africa that he produces which are startling to say the least. I assume they're accurate since he's a writer on Brexit matters that I really trust.
"In 2016, the UK exported goods worth £9.3bn to the whole of Africa, versus £145.1bn to the EU-27. Sweden's population of 10m absorbs four times more exports of British goods than does the 190m population of Nigeria, one-half of whom get by on less than $2 per day"
"Of the three countries favoured with Mrs May's attention last week, the volume of merchandise trade with South Africa ranks highest at £2.4bn. Since Ireland absorbs a total of more than £17bn it is a fair guess that the figure for South Africa is exceeded by the province of Connacht".
As you can see he is not impressed by Brexit as a plan. Why put at risk £145 billion of trade with your nearest and richest market in order to increase trade with poorer nations much further away?
May's trip was to South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya about which McCarthy says:
"The three countries taken together absorb one-third of the volume of UK merchandise exports that go to Belgium alone, or less than one-quarter of what goes to Ireland. The UK's annual exports to Kenya equal roughly the volume exported to Ireland in a week. Prospects for expanding these nugatory trade volumes are not promising, and there are three simple reasons for scepticism:
1. South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya are not members of the EU's single market.
2. They are a long way away.
3. These are not prosperous countries and have little capacity to pay for imports".
Now I may be pessimistic about Brexit along with millions of others but all this rings pathetically true. And I know that other EU countries already export far more than we do to the rest of the world. The EU is not the brake on our export potential that Brexiteers think it is. So, when I read an article like this one HERE from Brexit Central which has the title: Global Britain is brilliantly placed to seize the opportunities of Brexit, I know we are headed for disaster.
James Rogers uses four videos to set out his "vision" of Brexit. The first "reveals that Britain is richly endowed with national capabilities, that – if harnessed – would provide the means for the creation and realisation of a powerful new vision of the country’s place in the world".
"In our second video, we show why “Global Britain” – as a label for a new future – could, if properly articulated, provide a new organising principle for the country as we move into the 21st century. It would allow us to recapture our innovative character and dynamism, and escape the problematic project to integrate Europe under a common political order".
"Building on this vision of “Global Britain”, in the third video, we explain the geography of British power and the country’s strategic reach into the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans, regions that will define the twenty-first century. With its overseas territories, Britain is uniquely placed to be active in every one".
"And finally [in the fourth video], we explain the reasons why the United Kingdom will never leave Europe, even as it withdraws from the European Union. The reason for this is simple: Britain plays a decisive role in the defence of Europe, a position the government should be prepared to assert more vigorously in the years ahead, not least in the face of Russia’s aggressive revisionism in Eastern Europe".
The odd thing about all the videos is that not one explains why Brexit will change anything at all except to say we will escape the "problematic project to integrate Europe". Why or how a "new organising principle" will help to "recapture our innovative dynamism" or indeed where it went (down the back of the sofa perhaps) is left to our imagination. And the "strategic reach" we are supposed to have is talked of as "unrivalled" in the video as if the USA didn't exist and we had more than the pitiful 19 surface ships that the Royal Navy actually has.
Every one of the national advantages Mr Rogers mentions, and there are a lot, was there before the referendum but it doesn't explain why we export more to the Republic of Ireland in a week that we do to Kenya, a former colony, in a year. We could do with fewer glossy brochures and slick videos and more practical answers to all the myriad problems that Brexit will bring.
