The French Europe minister Natalie Loiseau, (HERE) has said she is surprised at reports in the British press that the EU is softening it's approach and that President Macron is preparing to "throw us a lifeline" (I think that was a phrase actually used in the UK press). Mme Loiseau is clearly unaware what happens over here on a slow news week. A paper publishes a bit of a garbled overheard conversation later retold second or third hand over a bottle or two of wine. Another paper builds on it, followed by several more and very soon it's the received wisdom.
The truth is that the EU have not changed their position one iota.
Yesterday Raab and Barnier gave a press conference in Brussels after more talks (what are they talking about?) that have not yet broken the impasse. The deadline has been shifted back to November and Barnier is demanding data from the UK on trade flows between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. He is still after a backstop solution.
The Guardian report that:
"Sources in Dublin said they had been aware of briefings by the British through the summer that the Irish would be persuaded to compromise in order to clinch a deal that would protect trade to the UK. They said Barnier’s “firm” line on the border challenge reinforced the belief that the EU was not divided.
"It is a real mindset [for the British] that they see this as the EU v the UK, that the EU has as much to lose; that the German car manufacturers will force a deal, but it hasn’t worked,” said the source.
"Barnier was pretty firm about the backstop. We have always said the text proposed in February/March can be changed but the agreement reached in December [of no hard border] must be respected".
It beggars belief that our Prime Minister could agree something in December last year and more than nine months later the brightest minds in DEXEU and the rest of the government cannot actually follow through with a legally sound text that makes the agreement watertight. The EU managed it in March but we rejected their version. Six months later we haven't published one of our own. Amazing.
There is still the question of governance of the withdrawal treaty as well. The EU are firm in believing a simple political agreement cannot override the great sweep of EU law and if later there is legal action the ECJ must be the ultimate arbiter..
Barnier is still focused on the withdrawal agreement, not the future relationship, and wants it settled by November at the latest. Raab is said to be a details man but I don't find him very impressive at all. It all looks to me like something will be cobbled together at the last minute and almost everything done in a rush, up against a deadline proves to be a disaster afterwards.
