Wednesday 5 September 2018

THE KING'S HINDSIGHT

Mervyn King, the former Bank of England governor has been speaking to the BBC about Brexit, slamming the government, parliament and the civil service for the mess that we find ourselves in (HERE). He supports Brexit and has spoken in favour of it in the past. His criticism is that we haven't prepared properly and have put ourselves in a weak position. Remember, this was the man in charge of the financial system when it all went wrong in 2008-9. He makes the same mistake that many fervent Brexiteers make, that is to blame everybody involved and not the problem itself.

He admits that planning for no deal would have taken "years" and although he doesn't say it there would also have been a financial cost to all those preparations, not to mention the political cost as the years went by and Brexiteers and the right wing press ramped up the pressure. Or the business uncertainty caused a slump in investment.

The BBC report:

"... Lord King predicts that we will find ourselves with what's been dubbed as Brino - Brexit in name only - which he said was the worst of all worlds. It's also a state of affairs that he fears could drag on for years.

"I think the biggest risk to the UK, and this is what worries me most, is that this issue isn't going to go away, you know the referendum hasn't decided it, because both camps feel that they haven't got what they wanted."

Lord King expressed regret and surprise that it was more difficult for a single country to present a united front than the other 27 EU members. He said: "They must have been really worried that they had 27 countries to try to corral, how could they have a united negotiating position, they were dealing with a country that was one country, made a clear decision, voted to leave, it knew what it wanted to do, how on earth could the EU manage to negotiate against this one decisive group on the other side of the Channel?

"Well, the reality's been completely the opposite. The EU has been united, has been clear, has been patient and it's the UK that's been divided without any clear strategy at all for how to get to where we want to go."

He says we "made a clear decision" in 2016. We did, but it was a "clear decision" to do the impossible. For instance, I could make a clear decision to put an end to the effects of gravity, or invent a time machine. If the civil service failed to achieve what I had decided, is that their fault or mine?

The reason we have been unable to reach a united negotiating position is precisely because the problem, the "clear decision", is so badly defined. King, along with every other leaver and Brexiteer, was told this repeatedly all through the campaign but chose to believe their own propaganda that it would all be very simple and easy. That we held "all the cards", that a trade deal would be concluded in "ten minutes" and so on. Anybody who pointed out the immense difficulties was scaremongering.

So, Mr King shouldn't blame the civil service, they don't know what to plan for. The EU Commission and the EU 27 were able to come quickly to a united negotiating position because they had logical and clearly defined objectives with a series of options open to us. They are the only options. Yet we can neither agree which of their options we want, since all will damage our economy, nor can we come up with an agreed option of our own.

His most telling comment is that "the referendum hasn't decided it" and he fears it could drag on for years. How true. Another referendum is surely the only way to resolve the issue - but this time based on facts not lies and fantasy?

Meanwhile The Guardian (HERE) report on King's intervention and point out that in December 2016 he seemed to be in favour of a hard Brexit (HERE) but seemingly failed to mention anything about taking "years" to plan our exit. Hindsight's a wonderful thing isn't it?  Talk about feet of clay, King has clay up to his thighs.