Wednesday 3 October 2018

MORE POLLING

Sky Data have published the results of a poll (HERE) where they asked the question: Do you think the outcome of Brexit will be better or worse than you thought it would be at the time of the EU referendum, or will it be as you expected?

The rather amazing result was only 9% thought the outcome will be either slightly (5%) or much better (4%).  By contrast 56% thought it will be slightly (24%) or much (32%) worse than they expected in 2016. Hardly a vote of confidence in Brexit. The outcome is being greeted with trepidation rather that wild or even mild enthusiasm.

The actual data tables are HERE.

Some of the other questions:

Do you think there should or should not be a referendum on whether the UK should leave the EU on the terms suggested by the government, leave the EU without a deal with the EU, or not leave the EU? Answer 50% SHOULD, 39% SHOULD NOT


Do you think the UK should leave the EU on the terms suggested by the government, leave the EU without a deal with the EU, or should the UK not leave the EU? Answer 43% DO NOT LEAVE, 28% LEAVE WITH NO DEAL, 15% LEAVE WITH CHEQUERS DEAL


On this last question note that leavers and remainers are evenly divided so it would be interesting to see how the 15% who want the (unavailable) Chequers deal, or whatever the government can finally negotiate, would split if that elusive deal proves impossible. My guess is that some at least would opt to remain in the EU. When the full import of no deal becomes clear, perhaps they will all decide to remain

As you might expect, the remainers are far more united than the leavers, who were always an uneasy coalition, and in my opinion this will eventually prove to be the downfall of Brexit.

Meanwhile, Professor John Curtice (HERE) looks at the current state of all of the polls and concludes we are still more or less at 52% Remain to 48% leave, the same as we were at the beginning of the year.

Incidentally, the 89th WhatUKthinks poll was published a few days ago asking: In hindsight do you think the decision to leave the EU was right or wrong?  WRONG was still ahead - by 4% (HERE). This is the 38th poll of 2018, with WRONG strongly ahead in 36 of them and just one occasion (January 8th) with RIGHT ahead by 1% and one poll even.