The media is full of speculation this morning about a deal being very close. The BBC report both Jean-Claude Juncker and FO minister Alan Duncan making slightly more optimistic noises (HERE). However, it's worth noting that most of the upbeat murmurings are coming out of Brussels and not London. The Mail is reporting that Downing Street say Britain won't be "bounced" into anything. I assume that's a sign we have made more concessions - as expected.
This is exactly what happened last December so I wouldn't get too excited just yet. We are just approaching the first hurdle in a 110m race. The cabinet, the DUP, parliamentary hurdles and no doubt some others are still to come.
This is exactly what happened last December so I wouldn't get too excited just yet. We are just approaching the first hurdle in a 110m race. The cabinet, the DUP, parliamentary hurdles and no doubt some others are still to come.
For the Irish backstop we seem to be proposing membership of the EU customs union indefinitely, as opposed to the time limited version Mrs May wanted, although nobody is yet mentioning the Common Commercial Policy which could prove a much bigger sticking point. But what interests me in this report in The Guardian HERE is the talk of flexibility on the part of the EU in the non binding political declaration about the future relationship.
This "flexibility" is intended to be a bit of low calorie fudge to avoid problems in defining what the future relationship will actually be. There will apparently be an "evolution" clause to say the EU will offer more if we relax our red lines later on. It is being presented as "helping" Mrs May.
The Telegraph report (HERE) that the EU will offer a "supercharged" free trade deal next week. But rest assured it won't be sufficiently supercharged to reach Chequers. It will be Canada with a few goodies thrown in on security and so on. The four freedoms will be just as indivisible as they always were.
The Telegraph report (HERE) that the EU will offer a "supercharged" free trade deal next week. But rest assured it won't be sufficiently supercharged to reach Chequers. It will be Canada with a few goodies thrown in on security and so on. The four freedoms will be just as indivisible as they always were.
The effect of the fudge will be to render arguments about Chequers, or whatever name it goes under this week, fruitless because no one will be able to say what the trade deal will be in precise terms. Is it Canada plus, plus, plus or Chequers or something even closer to the EEA? It will be a blind Brexit. This is akin to signing a weird hire purchase agreement where you know the price you'll pay but not what you're actually buying. I seem to remember David Davis telling us that the future relationship would have to be defined in detail otherwise the HoC would never agree to the £39 billion (and rising) divorce bill. So much for that.
Whatever concessions she has made, the PM is clearly not confident of getting the support of either the ERG or the DUP so she is "wooing" Labour MPs (HERE) to try and help her get it through the House of Commons. This will infuriate many in her own party.
In a classic carrot and stick approach the EU are also stepping up plans for a no deal outcome. The Irish government (HERE) is preparing new legislation and amendments to existing laws to manage things in the event we don't accept what is being proposed. And last week the French Minister for European Affairs, Nathalie Loiseau presented a Brexit bill to the Council of Ministers in Paris and later gave an interview to Le Figaro where she said:
"Like all other Member States and the United Kingdom, France is preparing for Brexit. The text is an enabling bill to legislate by ordinances. It gives the government the opportunity to take the necessary measures so that by March 30, 2019, whatever the scenario, France is ready. In the event of an agreement, we will have to progressively put in place infrastructures for the control on arrival in France of the goods coming from the United Kingdom, according to the level of controls which will be fixed in the agreement organizing our economic partnership. If there were to be no agreement, many other questions would arise, to which we will provide answers. The text presented this Wednesday in the Council of Ministers aims to give us all the necessary tools to deal with this scenario. We do not want such a scenario, but it is the responsibility of the government and Parliament to prepare for it".
Note the "infrastructure" being put in place "in the event of an agreement". The French are going to treat us like a third country whatever the outcome of the deal.
The Daily Express, surely the ultimate in modern jingoism, report (HERE) the French move under the heading: "They're FINALLY getting it! Worried France reveal NO DEAL Brexit plans - 'We MUST prepare'".
It's the old "Fog in Channel - Continent cut-off" headline isn't it? The Jack Russel who thinks he's a Rottweiler. When will reality dawn?
