Dr Richard North is still pushing for rejigging Europe on a grand scale, like some latter-day Talleyrand or Metternich, even down to persuading Switzerland to join the EEA. He acknowledges the Swiss voted in a referendum NOT to join the EEA but thinks they were wrong. Since he is vehemently opposed to us having a second referendum there is more than a whiff of hypocrisy here. But let's leave that to one side for the moment. He attacks the Treasury assessment published yesterday, in his usual fashion (HERE).
He describes the Treasury officials who prepared it as 'twenty-something brat packers' and 'children' and thinks they are far too negative and 'fundamentally misleading'. He says, "Specifically, it fails to take into account policy developments which could substantially enhance the UK's trading position".
For ideological reasons he seems to think there cannot be 'policy developments' inside the EU. The point about the Treasury assessment is that it tries to isolate the effects of Brexit. After Brexit the government could do all sorts of things to stimulate the economy - but they could probably do most of them, if not all, inside the EU. But leaving the SM and the CU will have the same negative impact on us regardless of what other policy options are explored. This is the key point.
He writes:
"But if the more positive view is taken, it can be conceded that there are real opportunities for the UK to drive a renaissance of global trade, with potentially huge economic benefits. It cannot be the case that the only possible long-term consequences of Brexit are negative.
"What we are seeing, therefore, in this latest tranche of modelling is a failure of imagination and a loss of nerve – not only in Mr Hammond's department but in the wider political community. The collective has shown itself unable to look at the bigger picture and cannot see that there are opportunities afforded by Brexit".
But as I posted earlier (HERE), every other nation in the EU (except Cyprus) exports more into the single market than outside it. Because we are the opposite, exporting more outside the EU, Daniel Hannan and Richard North seem to see this as a reason to leave, but actually it shows we have a huge relatively unexploited and wealthy market of 440 million consumers on our doorstep. Rather than The Treasury showing a failure of imagination it is more like Dr North doing what he accuses others of. He cannot see the 'opportunities' that we have to drive a renaissance of our own trade inside the single market - before we talk of going global.
He describes the Treasury officials who prepared it as 'twenty-something brat packers' and 'children' and thinks they are far too negative and 'fundamentally misleading'. He says, "Specifically, it fails to take into account policy developments which could substantially enhance the UK's trading position".
For ideological reasons he seems to think there cannot be 'policy developments' inside the EU. The point about the Treasury assessment is that it tries to isolate the effects of Brexit. After Brexit the government could do all sorts of things to stimulate the economy - but they could probably do most of them, if not all, inside the EU. But leaving the SM and the CU will have the same negative impact on us regardless of what other policy options are explored. This is the key point.
He writes:
"But if the more positive view is taken, it can be conceded that there are real opportunities for the UK to drive a renaissance of global trade, with potentially huge economic benefits. It cannot be the case that the only possible long-term consequences of Brexit are negative.
"What we are seeing, therefore, in this latest tranche of modelling is a failure of imagination and a loss of nerve – not only in Mr Hammond's department but in the wider political community. The collective has shown itself unable to look at the bigger picture and cannot see that there are opportunities afforded by Brexit".
But as I posted earlier (HERE), every other nation in the EU (except Cyprus) exports more into the single market than outside it. Because we are the opposite, exporting more outside the EU, Daniel Hannan and Richard North seem to see this as a reason to leave, but actually it shows we have a huge relatively unexploited and wealthy market of 440 million consumers on our doorstep. Rather than The Treasury showing a failure of imagination it is more like Dr North doing what he accuses others of. He cannot see the 'opportunities' that we have to drive a renaissance of our own trade inside the single market - before we talk of going global.
If you are uncompetitive in your home market, you are uncompetitive everywhere.
One might even paraphrase Richard North thus: He is unable to look at the bigger picture and cannot see that there are opportunities afforded by membership of the EU.
All the other EU27 can but somehow he can't.
All the other EU27 can but somehow he can't.
