BuzzFeed has compiled a list of Tory MPs (HERE) who they claim have either sent a no confidence letter or have publicly announced they cannot support the Withdrawal Agreement (or both). It clearly shows the massive problem the prime minister will have trying to get the deal through parliament. BuzzFeed's list shows 84 names - at the moment. The Tories will probably need about 320 votes minimum to be certain of ratifying the agreement.
In light of today's @SamCoatesTimes scoop, reminder that without DUP support May's path to winning meaningful vote gets very precarious. She'd need to win over bulk of ERG and virtually all plausible Labour rebels (table is original research by @cobm123 and myself for @EdelmanUK) pic.twitter.com/pJhetIkvs1— Pawel Swidlicki (@pswidlicki) November 9, 2018
If I recalculate Swidlicki's figures based on BuzzFeed's later findings it means Theresa May can only count on 238 votes (316 - 84) + 6 certain supporters from Labour. Up to 401 might vote against if I include the DUP's 10 votes. Sinn Fein and the four speakers are excluded from the numbers because they won't or can't vote. This is at least 80 votes short.
As BuzzFeed admit, not all the 84 will actually vote against the deal. The whips may persuade some rebels to change their minds and others will perhaps abstain. But there may also be other Tory MPs, not yet declared, who could join the rebels. On the other hand, not all her opponents' will vote against either. But at the moment it looks totally impossible for the PM. She may end up much closer to the magic number but I still don't see how she can get the deal through.
It will require a Herculean effort on the part of the Whip's office - and a miracle.
If parliament won't pass the deal we are in totally uncharted territory but my money would be on no-Brexit winning out. No responsible PM would be able to do nothing and simply allow the country to slide over the cliff edge in March. Under those circumstances another referendum seems more likely than not. I don't see an alternative. If a majority of the nation really wants to commit an act of deliberate economic self-harm MPs will at least be able to say we checked this is the course you wanted - so don't blame us. Stand back, here it comes. Brace yourselves.
