I note someone has done some calculations on the probable support in parliament for and opposition to, the putative deal that Mrs May will likely present to parliament in December. They have it at 283 definite supporters and 311 definite opponents with 45 persuadable. I assume the 283 included Jo Johnson so the figures now are 282 to 312. I see also the authors put the DUP into the "potentially persuadable" figure.
This looks like a heroic assumption based on what Arlene Foster said yesterday. If I rejig the numbers a little to take yesterday's JoJo resignation and the DUP's apparent implacable opposition into account, it means 282 definite supporters, 322 opponents with 35 persuadable.In light of today's @SamCoatesTimes scoop, reminder that without DUP support May's path to winning meaningful vote gets very precarious. She'd need to win over bulk of ERG and virtually all plausible Labour rebels (table is original research by @cobm123 and myself for @EdelmanUK) pic.twitter.com/pJhetIkvs1— Pawel Swidlicki (@pswidlicki) 9 November 2018
Even, if she was able to persuade every single one, the government cannot muster any more than 317 votes and cannot win a meaningful vote. She is at least five votes short.
How good are the figures? Well, who knows? Pawel Swidlicki is described as an EU policy expert and Brexit analyst at Edelman magazine. Edelman is described as a leading global marketing and communications company . He was also a former staffer at Open Europe, a slightly Eurosceptic think-tank so he should know what he's talking about.
