Conservative Home have taken a leaf out of BuzzFeed's book and started to compile a list of Conservative MPs who have indicated they will vote against the prime minister's deal (HERE) which they say is 66 definitely opposed, not 100. It's slightly different to BuzzFeed but actually it comes to more or less the same conclusion. They list MPs as 'definites', 'probables' and 'possibles' so slightly more nuanced but the total is still hitting 99 even before Sam Gimyah resigned on Friday night to make it 100.
The Commons Library (HERE) have prepared a "map" of the mechanics around the so-called meaningful vote but it's not really that helpful because it simply explains that after December 11th - the date of the vote - the government, always assuming there is one, will have 21 days to make a statement of its intention to The House, which will then have 7 days to approve or reject it.
However, anyone who thinks these are realistic time scales is living in cloud-cuckoo land. If the vote is lost, they will have a few hours to set out what they intend to do. The market's reaction will give them no time to play with.
Most people are still thinking along the lines of the government having three serious main choices:
The PM's deal renegotiated
No deal
No Brexit
I see no chance of the PM's deal being ratified as it is. The gap may be tighter than we see at the moment and it will depend on how the 100 Tories opposed to the deal finally vote. Some may abstain, others may vote against. The gap could be between 80 and 160 in which case the PM may decide to step down and kick off a leadership election. Whatever happens her deal is almost certain to fail bar a miracle.
The next ten days or so are going to determine Brexit and May's future.
The next ten days or so are going to determine Brexit and May's future.
Laura Kuenssberg (HERE) thinks support for her deal is actually shrinking and discusses whether she can survive. There is talk of asking MPs to vote again if she fails to get it through by 50 votes or less. Kuenssbergg quotes someone in Downing Street:
"Traditionally it's impossible to see how a prime minister of a
minority government would be able to survive a defeat of their main
policy. But one Number 10 insider commented: 'Stranger things have
happened - most of them, in the last year.'
It's not impossible for May or her successor to ask for Article 50 to be extended and to try and negotiate some changes or even pursue the EEA option although this is unlikely. Tusk has said if the deal is rejected leaves only no deal or no Brexit. Plus the EEA would need some of our red lines to be erased and it would be even less popular with the Brexiteers, especially if it included some sort of customs arrangement to resolve the NI border problem.
This leaves No deal or No Brexit. The Japanese PM (HERE) has urged Mrs May to avoid no Brexit which heaps even more pressure on her. No deal was pretty unthinkable anyway but the Japanese are very big investors here and his intervention is crucial. ITV (HERE) say:
"When the Japanese PM publicly calls on May for “support to avoid no deal”
- as he did today here in Argentina - because of the damage trade
friction at the border would do to important Japanese companies with big
factories in the UK, it is very hard for the PM to plausibly argue that
she would simply let chaotic events drive the UK to the cliff edge of
an unnegotiated withdrawal from the EU".
In truth, the chances of a hard Brexit have virtually disappeared. It's either a very, very soft one or none at all.
If it is no Brexit this will almost certainly be by way of a people's vote since MPs are unlikely to take such a decision themselves. But at the moment there is no majority in parliament for a second referendum so this is not going to be easy either. We are in unchartered waters with a serious storm coming.
