Dominic Grieve's amendment has made an EEA solution more likely I think. The MPs who supported it are largely in favour of the EEA known as the Norway option and Sir Oliver Letwin was on Radio 4 this morning saying it's the only option that has majority support in the House which would allow us to leave with as little economic damage as possible. This still leaves some considerable problems to be resolved, not least is getting EFTA and the EU to agree to allow us in to the EEA.
Letwin also confirmed we would need to remain in the customs union (the Labour position) to resolve the Irish border backstop problem. There is also the question of time, an extension to Article 50 would certainly be required since the negotiators would be virtually starting again. The EU and EFTA might insist on our remaining in the EEA for a considerable time and not to use it as a temporary springboard to something else. None of this would be well received by the Brexiteers or the pro-Brexit press - to put it mildly.
Nick Boles was still pushing hard for a Norway style relationship with the EU the other day (HERE) and I think he also believes has quite a bit of cross party support as well as from some cabinet members too.
Letwin was followed on The Today programme by Justin Greening MP who is
calling for a second vote, but not the chaotic one we had in 2016. She wants a
referendum with a manifesto setting out what she called 'the facts' so
people could make an informed choice. I would like to agree with this
but since the government tried to set out 'the facts' in 2016 and it was
called scaremongering by the other side and shouted down, I'm not sure if the 'facts' would ever get through.
It's possible there could be some common ground 'facts' agreed and we would also by then know what our so-called sovereign and largely pro-remain parliament would accept and what the EU would agree to. This might limit the choices that could be put to the people. No deal would be totally off the table.
However, I am not sure the men and women in the street would really understand the difference between the EEA solution with a customs union and freedom of movement, and being a full member of the EU. It is a very long way from taking back control.
We may just as well remain in the EU. This was always the problem with the EEA and Dr North's Flexcit plan. If we are going to be so close as to not be able to fit a tram ticket between us what really is the point?
Mike Gapes MP (HERE) is of exactly the same opinion.
Finally, Andrea Leadsom was also on The Today programme says no deal is the default option and Dominic Grieve's amendment doesn't change that. We shall see. Pressed on what is going to happen if the negotiated deal is voted down she says she "doesn't do predictions" but she was on the committee of the Vote Leave campaign and made a lot of predictions (HERE) before the referendum. What about these:
"[The Vote Leave campaign] plan to publish, over the next couple of weeks, a series of papers on
what leaving the EU might look like. We will be talking about how
remaining in the EU will affect us, how the transition period of our
exit might look, and then, a flavour of what our options will be once we
get back our freedom to choose".
"I, and my Fresh Start Colleagues, believe that the UK has a superb future waiting for us outside the EU"
What were these if not prediction?
