Yet another defeat last night for a government that has looked completely rudderless for months but is now holed below the waterline and taking more hits every day. The PM cannot survive much longer surely? If you watched the debate on Parliament on TV you will know the Tory whips tried to be far too clever and drafted the government motion so that technically it meant leaving the EU on the 29th March was to be rejected, leaving open the prospect of a no-deal Brexit later on.
Government reassurances were enough to persuade Caroline Spelman not to move amendment (a) which rejected leaving without a deal at any time, but Yvette Copper, a co-signatory, moved it instead and unexpectedly the government lost the motion by just 4 votes. Nine Tory MPs voted against the government and another ten abstained.
So, it was eventually the amended motion that was voted on with the government now whipping to reject it but were defeated by 321 to 278, a decisive majority of 43. Seventeen Tory MPs voted against the government and another 29 abstained including several cabinet ministers. This permanently rules out a no deal exit.
The so-called Malthouse amendment (known as the Madhouse compromise in Brussels) was rejected by 374 to 164. This was an amendment for a 'managed no-deal process' that required the government to publish tariff schedules, to delay leaving to May 22nd and agree a 'Mutual standstill agreement' with the EU until the end of 2021 and to unilaterally guarantee citizens' rights. Anyway, it is now officially dead - I think.
I note in the aftermath, several Brexiteers, including Jacob Rees-Mogg say the vote isn't binding on the government and the legal position is exactly as it was: that we leave on March 29th without a deal. But the PM agreed to be bound by the vote. It's exactly the same position as the referendum. That wasn't legally binding either but the government agreed to be bound by it. I really cannot see Mrs May defying parliament.
The BBC (HERE) had a rolling report on the reaction after the vote. Some interesting points are:
At 20:53 "Tory MP and ERG deputy chairman Steve Baker calls on the government to go back to Brussels and tell the EU that no matter how many times the meaningful vote is had, Theresa May's deal 'will not pass'. 'When meaningful vote three comes back I will see to it that we will keep voting it down,' he adds, noting that the ERG will not support the 'rotten' deal, no matter how many times it is brought back."
You can see which Tory MPs abstained and which of them voted against at 20:35.
Sky News reviews the papers this morning (HERE) and words like 'meltdown' and 'chaos' fill the front pages. Party and cabinet unity seems to have broken down completely. The only thing left now for parliament is for brawling to break out. Chris Bryant MP, a bit of an authority on parliament says since the 16th century it has been the convention that a motion cannot be brought twice in the same session - the PM is now planning to bring it three - or even four times! It wouldn't surprise me at all if parliament descended into a fist fight - such is the level of anger.
Today, another roller coaster awaits as MPs have the chance to vote on requesting a delay to the Article 50 period. But I hear Katya Adler, the BBC's European correspondent, saying sentiment in the EU is hardening, which is not surprising given we have spent two and a half years arguing among ourselves with no sign of any consensus, just sixteen days short of the day we are supposed to leave the bloc. It seems an extension, assuming we do actually ask for one, is nowhere near a certainty with even friendly EU countries like Sweden, Germany and Holland raising questions about what its purpose would be.
Once again, the PM didn't accept the slightest responsibility for the chaos. After the 2017 election, when she lost Cameron's small majority in the House of Commons, Theresa May told her MPs that she had got them into the mess and she would get them out of it. Foolishly they believed her. Instead she has steadily driven them deeper into a bigger and bigger mess and they are probably closer to splitting apart than at any time since the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846. Cherchez la femme, as the French would say.
If you thought this was the end of Mrs May's deal by the way, you would be quite wrong. Two heavy defeats are not going to change her mind at all and preparations are under way to bring it back a third time (HERE) and even a fourth!
Don't forget this deal is almost universally disliked. The ERG don't like it one little bit and Nigel Farage says it's worse that our present deal. Leavers are opposed because they don't believe it honours the referendum. Remainers don't like it for similar reasons. Some MPs voted for it simply to get something agreed rather than any enthusiasm. The deal has only about 20-30% support among public. Yet the PM keeps trying to ram it down our throats.
She claims the EU may not give a short 'technical' extension unless her deal is agreed. The next EU summit is on 21st/22nd which means, she says, MPs have until 20th March next week to accept her deal or risk a much longer delay (HERE) and engaging in European elections.
Incidentally, she herself voted to reject the motion and keep no deal Brexit on the table. Her credibility in Europe, not very high at the the moment anyway, must now have hit rock bottom. Which prime minister of a modern western democracy would threaten disruption on a national scale by supporting the abrupt leaving of its major trading partner overnight?
If the ERG do vote against the government again - assuming Mrs May has the nerve to try it a third time (the people only get one shot, MPs are apparently not tempted to riot by being asked a second or even a third time) - and it is lost again, the only other options are revoking Article 50 or going for a people's vote.
If we do eventually get a second referendum I think Brexiteers may regret all the 'will of the people' stuff because if remain wins arguing against the will of the people is going to prove very hard. We will throw it all back in their faces.
Don't forget this deal is almost universally disliked. The ERG don't like it one little bit and Nigel Farage says it's worse that our present deal. Leavers are opposed because they don't believe it honours the referendum. Remainers don't like it for similar reasons. Some MPs voted for it simply to get something agreed rather than any enthusiasm. The deal has only about 20-30% support among public. Yet the PM keeps trying to ram it down our throats.
She claims the EU may not give a short 'technical' extension unless her deal is agreed. The next EU summit is on 21st/22nd which means, she says, MPs have until 20th March next week to accept her deal or risk a much longer delay (HERE) and engaging in European elections.
Incidentally, she herself voted to reject the motion and keep no deal Brexit on the table. Her credibility in Europe, not very high at the the moment anyway, must now have hit rock bottom. Which prime minister of a modern western democracy would threaten disruption on a national scale by supporting the abrupt leaving of its major trading partner overnight?
If the ERG do vote against the government again - assuming Mrs May has the nerve to try it a third time (the people only get one shot, MPs are apparently not tempted to riot by being asked a second or even a third time) - and it is lost again, the only other options are revoking Article 50 or going for a people's vote.
If we do eventually get a second referendum I think Brexiteers may regret all the 'will of the people' stuff because if remain wins arguing against the will of the people is going to prove very hard. We will throw it all back in their faces.
