Brexit is one of those things that happens once in a lifetime - I'm very happy to say. Whenever you think we have reached peak shambles something happens that makes you realise today's shambles is actually even worse than yesterday's and increasing exponentially. It was another meaningful vote, another humiliating defeat for Theresa May. Her deal with the marginally extra 'legally binding' assurances went down 242 to 391, a majority of 149 against her. Slightly better than January but not much.
I wonder what the civil servants and EU diplomats think about the work they've been doing for the last few weeks? Not to mention the RAF pilots on standby to whisk her to Strasbourg at the weekend. It was all for nothing. I woke yesterday morning at about 6:30 to hear Norman Smith, the BBC's political correspondent, saying the extra reassurances she had got from the EU were a 'game changer'. For an hour or so, not having seen any of the documents or heard any expert opinion, I was a bit worried but as the day went on it became clearer and clearer they would not be enough.
At lunchtime, the Attorney General's official advice came out. It was a 'game changer' alright but not quite in the way that Norman Smith meant just after dawn in the morning.
I owe an apology to Geoffrey Cox by the way. I assumed the Attorney General would back the additional 'legally binding' assurances to the hilt but in the event he decided to salvage what was left of his career. Good on him. In a long and complicated opinion (HERE) it was the last paragraph that drove the stiletto into any slim hope the PM had of getting the House to ratify her deal. This is it:-
"However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation doesarise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement".
When she lost the first vote in January, she invited other parties into Downing Street to try and find a consensus. But presumably it was only to ignore them. Yesterday MPs voted for a second time on exactly the same deal that they rejected in January - not one of her red lines changed in the slightest, in fact she might have touched them up a little. It's hard to see what the discussions after the first vote achieved. If a deal is ever to be done Theresa May is going to have to compromise.
The vote later today will take no deal off the table and tomorrow's vote will force the government to ask for a delay. The question then is will the EU grant a delay. They are expected to ask for some clear reasons for extending Article 50 and it is by no means guaranteed. The only other option is for the PM to revoke Article 50. It would suit me if the EU refused an extension and say it's time to make a real decision - in or out!
I watched the debate yesterday afternoon. The contribution of Sir William Cash was something to behold. I was worried he was about to lose it altogether. A little Englander writ small, he looked like a cross between Corporal Jones and Victor Meldrew while being tasered. Everything was wrong with the deal. The list of objections went on and on.and on. If it had the word Europe in it it must be evil, ipso facto. Cash will only be happy when an iron curtain is erected down the North Sea and the English Channel.
The other amazing thing about last night's vote was that the person at the epicentre, the person whose stubbornness, mistakes, poor judgement and appalling decision making has brought European trade and politics to the brink of a crisis showed not the slightest embarrassment or shame. There was no acknowledgement of her absolutely central role in the whole fiasco. Her autobiography will be titled; The United Kingdom, my part in it's downfall.
She is said to lay much of the blame at the door of the Attorney General for not changing his legal advice and declaring that black was white - legally!
When the vote was lost, Theresa may made a prepared statement (HERE Col 296) and at the very end of it, the woman who has never faced up to the really difficult decisions told MPs:
"But let me be clear: voting against leaving without a deal and for an extension does not solve the problems that we face. The EU will want to know what use we mean to make of such an extension, and this House will have to answer that question. Does it wish to revoke article 50? Does it want to hold a second referendum? Or does it want to leave with a deal, but not this deal? These are unenviable choices, but thanks to the decision that the House has made this evening, they are choices that must now be faced".
And she fixed the opposition benches with that steely glare. It was all down to them - nothing to do with her or the MPs in her own party sitting behind. The nation and the whole of Europe is transfixed by what is going in inside the prime minister's tiny stubborn mind. Stunning!
This morning Norman Smith at the BBC said he couldn't rule out Mrs May bringing the same deal back for a third time. OMG. She still thinks everyone else must be flexible.
For someone like me, and many others, racked with self doubt from childhood, Theresa May's ego is something to be in awe of. Mountaineers could practice abseiling down it in preparation for tackling the Eiger or K2. I think she was more upset at losing the Tories their majority in the 2017 election than driving the entire nation to the abyss.
Oh and I understand this morning at 7:00am the government was due to publish our tariff schedules in preparation for a no-deal Brexit. This with 16 days to go. Watch out for fireworks.
Oh and I understand this morning at 7:00am the government was due to publish our tariff schedules in preparation for a no-deal Brexit. This with 16 days to go. Watch out for fireworks.
