Friday 15 March 2019

ARTICLE 50 DELAY - THE LONG AND SHORT OF IT

The monumental fiasco of Brexit crabbed a bit further forward last night with the government motion approving a delay to Brexit being passed by 413 to 202 (HERE). Amendments to give MPs some control of the process narrowly failed as did an attempt by Sarah Wollaston to get a second referendum which lost heavily 334 - 85 because the Labour party refused to support it 'tonight' - so we still have hopes.  However, this doesn't begin to tell yesterday's story.

Stephen Barclay, the DEXEU Secretary and part-time twerp, wound up the debate for the government, arguing passionately that MPs should support the motion and instruct the government to ask for a delay beyond March 29th. He then went promptly through the division lobby to vote against his own argument! Even though it was a free vote, nobody can remember this happening ever before and I'm not surprised.  He was joined by 187 other Tory MP's including Nigel Adams, Julian Sturdy and Andrew Percy. The motion was carried only with the help of Labour.  A majority of Tory MPs couldn't or wouldn't vote for their own government.

I think Tory MPs used Labour as a human shield, voting against while knowing the government was not going to be defeated, they could go back to their associations with the polished credentials of their Euro scepticism intact. Cowards all.

Incidentally, I noted Adams voted aye to the Malthouse proposal, also known in Brussels as the 'madhouse compromise' but it went down to ignominious defeat by 210 votes.

The actual motion that the House of Commons voted on last night was as follows:

(1) notes the resolutions of the House of 12 and 13 March, and accordingly agrees that the Government will seek to agree with the European Union an extension of the period specified in Article 50(3); 

(2) agrees that, if the House has passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then the Government will seek to agree with the European Union a one-off extension of the period specified in Article 50(3) for a period ending on 30 June 2019 for the purpose of passing the necessary EU exit legislation; and 

(3) notes that, if the House has not passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then it is highly likely that the European Council at its meeting the following day would require a clear purpose for any extension, not least to determine its length, and that any extension beyond 30 June 2019 would require the United Kingdom to hold European Parliament elections in May 2019

By defeating attempts to give MPs more control over the process there seemed to be an acknowledgement that Mrs May, the driver, was unfit to be in charge of Brexit but nobody else should step in and take over to avoid a disaster. 

I receive emails from the government (don't worry I subscribe, they don't ask me for advice!) and yesterday one popped in with a document setting out the 'parameters for extending Article 50' - you can read it HERE if you've a mind to.

And it's now confirmed that the PM will drag her deal back to the Commons on May 20th for yet another go at getting MPs to approve it. The Telegraph (HERE) are reporting that the Attorney General is being pressed to change his advice to try and persuade the DUP and other wavering ERG members to support the deal. He is supposed to be trying to suggest we can get out using some obscure clause in the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, but it seems likely to fail as the report says:

"However, the so-called 'star chamber' of Eurosceptic Tory lawyers, which includes the DUP's deputy leader Nigel Dodds, has produced a five-page analysis of the advice and concluded that it is 'erroneous' and 'badly misconceived'.

If she fails again on May 20th (which I think is still the most likely outcome) there will almost certainly be a far longer delay - well beyond June and possibly as long as 21 months. I cannot see Theresa May continuing if that was the case. If, by some miracle, she manages to get the deal past MPs there will be a short delay and she may not even survive that.

Note this by David Lidington, the de facto deputy PM during the debate yesterday (HERE Col 563) setting out what would happen if the deal is again rejected:

"The Government recognise that the House would require time to consider the potential ways forward in such a scenario, so I can confirm today that in such a scenario the Government, having consulted the usual channels at that time, would facilitate a process in the two weeks after the March European Council to allow ​the House to seek a majority on the way forward. We should be clear about the consequences if that were to happen. If we are in the world of a longer extension so that this House can come to a decision, we will be required, as a condition, to hold European parliamentary elections in May".

In typically British fashion, after three years of chaos, there is finally some recognition of what we should have done at the outset - seek a majority in the House of Commons. Simples, as Mrs May might have said, but didn't.

Brexit is starting to resemble a great mincing machine. It stalks the country laying waste to all in its path.  Careers, leaders, political parties, social cohesion, companies, industries and even nations are sucked in, ground to nothing and spit out. It seems unstoppable?