Thursday 7 March 2019

BREXIT CENTRAL - AGAIN

Brexit Central have published a tirade (HERE) from yet another 'businessman' masquerading as the billionaire owner and CEO of a multi-national business employing thousands, but this time tinged with threats. It sounds like a Tommy Robinson character, with tattoos on every knuckle, pretending to be Richard Branson or Bill Gates. The man is Alastair MacMillan, described as running White House Products, "a company which exports to over 100 countries around the world including to customers in every other EU state".

White House Products is a small business. Bigger than a previous contributor to Brexit Central, Kirby Devon (HERE) with three employees, but not by very much.  WHP employed an average of 22 people in 2017 and distribute hydraulic pumps (HERE).  It isn't a big company because its accounts for the year ended 31st January 2018 (HERE) are prepared in accordance with Section 15 of the Companies Act 2006 - which means it has a turnover of below £10 million and a workforce of under 50.  Hardly Intel is it?

They may have exported to 100 countries in the past over many years but sending a single package to a country having previously ascertained the shipping costs from a freight forwarder on FOB (Free On Board) or CIF (Cost Insurance and Freight) basis is one thing but making just-in-time deliveries or shipping perishable goods across borders multiple times every day is quite another - particularly if you're stuck with a fixed and published price in a highly competitive industry.

But let's ignore all that for the moment because Mr MacMillan is in no mood for compromise on Brexit - although I fear he is in for a big disappointment in the future. These are some extracts from his article:

"We owe this [the balance between the individual and the state] to Magna Carta, the Glorious Revolution, the Common Law, the Acts of Union, Simon de Montfort, John Wilkes, suffragettes and many other events and people in our history. However, over the last 45 years the EU has come like a bull through this and has not just upset it, but as we try to leave is threatening to destroy it".

He believes that Parliament has increasingly delegated responsibility for running the country to Brussels and in many areas "been reduced simply to ciphers for the Commission in Brussels". Mr MacMillan doesn't realise each EU28 is widely consulted before any laws are passed, a lot of work is done openly and transparently by civil servants and eventually our ministers and MEPs vote on every regulation and directive. We are no more ciphers than an MP is a cipher in the House of Commons.

And because it's taken three years nearly since the referendum to get nowhere he blames it all on EU 'intransigence'! We are blameless for setting off without a plan, in a weak position and with the ERG steering the tiller towards an impasse by asking - nay, demanding - we get a better deal outside the single market than we could get inside it.

In typical Brexiteer style he thinks WTO terms present no problems at all:

"Now that the choice is between a No Deal exit on WTO terms or the Prime Minister’s flawed deal, many MPs and ministers are trying to backslide on their previous commitments. They quote business as being the reason, the need to avoid chaos or the devastation that will be caused by No Deal etc. I write this as someone in business importing assemblies and components from all over the world and exporting more than two-thirds of our turnover to more than 120 countries around world. Whenever I ask who it is that is going to cause all these problems, no one can tell me; initially it was going to be due to delays at the Channel ports due to extra checks, but the port operators, Border Force and HMRC all say 'Not us, Guv'! 

"With any changes, such as applying new procedures to almost anything, there is always an element of disruption – but it will be small in the overall context and in a few months’ time we will look back and wonder what all the fuss was about. However, what we are witnessing is a groupthink bubble that has been inflated to such a size that those propagating it have to keep inflating it, because if we do leave on WTO terms and it is as I expect a relatively straightforward change, they will be shown to have been crying wolf".

The experts are virtually unanimous in advising a no-deal WTO exit would be disastrous for great swathes of industry. The car and aviation sectors are pleading with the UK government not to do it but Alastair MacMillan wants to topple over the edge on March 29th:

"The time for kicking the can down the road has come to an end and MPs – especially in the governing party – have to look over the edge at the train of events that they are going to set off if they don’t hold out for No Deal and leaving on 29th March".

And at the end the veiled threat:

"The EU has behaved just as Yanis Varoufakis predicted and in turn the UK has fallen into the traps he predicted. There is only one way out and that is to go WTO on 29th March, otherwise the conversation between MPs and voters is going to go something like: 'Sorry old boy, I am afraid your vote didn’t count but mine did so we are staying in'. That would set off a chain of events over which politicians of all parties would have little control".

Nobody is suggesting the 2016 leave votes shouldn't count. What we object to is people like MacMillan, who knew nothing, telling us everything would be easy and we would prosper after Brexit when increasingly we can see the opposite is true.

Delaying Brexit and asking the voters to confirm they want to accept May's deal, which he thinks is badly flawed, or leaving on WTO terms or staying in the EU will apparently set off a chain of events that politicians would have little control over. But decimating the car industry is of little consequence to him and the 800,000 or so people thrown out of work are expected to cheer it from the rooftops. It is delusional.