ComRes have conducted a very extensive poll for an organisation called Brexit Express. It has some interesting details about the way public opinion is shaping up. As is usual with these things the figures are used very selectively. The Telegraph (HERE) uses the poll to produce the headline: Public swinging behind no deal Brexit, as Tories and DUP urge May to invoke plan B. It claims 44% of people back leaving without a deal. This intrigued me so I did a bit of research.
The poll itself (HERE) is 235 pages long, mainly because it gives election voting intentions and ComRes insist on breaking down the figures by region, age group and goodness knows what else and it takes a lot of wading through - but relax, I've done it for you.
The 44% figure is true but you have to get to table 173 on page 178 to find it.
But one can see why The Telegraph picked it out. It's just about the only semi-positive thing for Brexit in all the 235 pages. The poll shows a phenomenal amount of ignorance among ordinary voters - as opposed to Brexit obsessives like us that is.
But first of all let me point you to a figure that is not in the Telegraph headline and that comes in table 40. This asks how would the 2,042 on-line respondents would vote if the referendum were held now, and the result is 55% to 45% to REMAIN. Brexit Express won't like that so it doesn't appear in the Telegraph summary.
If I go to table 33 I can see the cohort is actually a reasonable reflection of the referendum vote because they were 52% to 48% for leave in 2016 (excluding don't knows and didn't votes). There has clearly been a big shift in the 'will of the people' but this isn't mentioned at all.
The pollsters ask a series of questions which tell us an awful lot about what those polled think about the effect of Brexit on trade. Table 43 ask how many thought these statements were true or false:
- If the UK leaves the EU without a deal we will be unable to trade with any other countries. 8% thought this was true and 22% didn't know.
- If the UK leaves the EU without a deal we will be unable to trade with countries with which we don't specifically have a bilateral trade deal. 22% thought this was true and 40% didn't know.
- If the UK leaves the EU without a deal the EU would be likely to discriminate against UK exports by setting tariffs that are higher than exports from other non-EU countries. 38% thought this was true and 44% didn't know.
The level of ignorance is stunning. None of these statements are true in any way.
Table 118 shows 40% of people think the UK economy would 'benefit from being outside the regulatory constraints of the EU'. It's not obvious to me what these 'constraints' are or which ones we might remove and how they could benefit our economy. This demonstrates to me an area ripe for huge future disappointment if Brexit goes ahead. There seems little appreciation of how regulatory alignment actually helps to increase trade and competition.
A surprising 47% of people think life would 'carry on as normal' if we leave the EU without a formal agreement (table 117). Bear this in mind when considering the 44% who say we should just quit if the EU fail to make any more concessions. If you don't think a no-deal Brexit will cause serious damage then you are likely to vote for it. Why not?
Table 136 shows overall 63% of respondents think Britain after Brexit should position itself as 'the lowest tax, business friendly country in Europe'. The North East is also at 63% on this question, which for a region desperate for investment in infrastructure is amazing. Britain is already one of, if not the, lowest tax, business friendly country in Europe so how much further we can go without serious social consequences is questionable.
Respondents thought by 60% to 40% that irrespective of the way they voted in 2016 the result should be respected. Only 40% thought that leaving on WTO terms would be more harmful in terms of trust in politics and social cohesion than not implementing the result. Again this comes down to the 47% who think life would carry on as normal after a no-deal Brexit.
After I drafted this post earlier this morning I noticed Jonathon Read at The New European (HERE) has also written a piece about the ComRes poll which you might like to read. Also, I see professor John Curtice has an nice article on WhatUKthinks (HERE) asking if voters are really ready to leave with no deal. He concludes:
"The relative popularity of leaving without a deal has been repeatedly demonstrated by Opinium. It has now asked its respondents on no less than nine occasions to choose between five different possible ways forward given the rejection of Mrs May’s deal by Parliament. Each time leaving without a deal has been the single most popular option, on average securing the backing of 26%"
So, not 44% as The Telegraph trumpeted, more like 26% and note this from our foremost psephologist:
"Still, it might be objected that in practice the choice facing MPs is not so wide-raging as that canvassed by Opinium. Rather, as the Prime Minister would put it, it is in reality between deal, no deal or no Brexit. When polls have presented voters with that choice, it is no Brexit that has emerged as the single most popular choice"
There you have it. More people would support no Brexit than no deal.
All in all, I think this is good news for remainers. There is a shift in opinion and the ones who have not changed their mind are often confused and seem to be unaware of the damage a no-deal Brexit would bring.
As the truth and the real impact comes out Brexit will slowly disappear down the tubes. We are on the right side of history.
