Monday 25 March 2019

HAS THE END OF MAY COME EARLY THIS YEAR?

I believe today was supposed to be the day for Operation Yellowhammer, the government's civil contingencies planning for a no deal Brexit, to be publicly unveiled. This includes TV ads to inform the public and businesses of the need to prepare. Whether or not it will now go ahead after we got another 12 days breathing space, I don't know.  However, whenever this official government advice is finally revealed we shall see what information cabinet ministers have been looking at for months.

Leavers will actually be able to see precisely what they have been telling pollsters they are apparently happy to endure. Faisal Islam of Sky News (HERE), points out this will be the first time in history that civil contingencies disaster preparations will have been rolled out as a direct result of a deliberate government policy. Amazing, eh?  The Guardian report on the chaotic behind the scenes no deal planning HERE.

Some of the leavers might be shocked and might struggle to understand just how much worse a 'bad deal' would have to be to exceed the catastrophe of no deal. If Operation Yellowhammer does go ahead as planned it will mark the beginning of a tempestuous week.

Today should be an exciting one in parliament. ITV report (HERE) that MPs will debate an amendable government motion with seven amendments tabled already. We wait to see what others are tabled and which ones are eventually selected by speaker Bercow for debate. Voting is expected to take place around 10pm tonight.  

However, it may all be academic. Robert Peston (HERE), after speaking to eight cabinet ministers yesterday, claims they have told him that even if parliament managed later this week to arrive at a majority for a specific option but which crossed her red lines, they did not believe the PM would implement it anyway! If anything at all commands a majority it's likely to be a soft Brexit and hence probably more acceptable to the EU. In those circumstances we would be in the crazy position of our own PM being the only person standing in the way of an agreement between parliament and the EU.

Some cabinet ministers think this would lead to a general election which would throw everything up in the air again.

All this is taking place against the Revoke Article 50 petition still ticking along nicely this morning having reached 5,350,000 with 6,356 in Selby & Ainsty.  This makes it the largest petition by over a million, easily breaking the previous record held by another Brexit related petition in 2016 to hold a second referendum. That only reached 4.1 million (HERE).

This week promises to be the long awaited moment when Mrs May is finally dragged to confront the reality of what she has done to us with options closed off and support for her among Tory MPs rapidly evaporating. Peston reported last night (HERE) that the PM told Brexiteers gathered at Chequers yesterday that she would quit if they supported her deal - but said there was no trust that she would actually go. May is the mistress of letting people leave meetings with one impression while having an entirely different one herself. I still don't believe the deal will go through this week.

Finally, if you were unable to get to Parliament Square on Saturday you would not have heard Michael Heseltine's speech. We arrived as he was speaking and it wasn't easy to hear the whole thing because the square itself was packed and on the west side, where we ended up,  the PA system wasn't that good.

However, you can hear it on YouTube (HERE). Afterwards someone said to me that they had done some strange things but never, ever thought they would be applauding a Heseltine speech in Parliament Square. Every word was well crafted and delivered with real gravitas. If we'd had more men like him in the campaign Brexit would be a fading memory by now. His speech was 13 minutes long but well worth listening to.

Heseltine said in 1940 we were famously alone, but Churchill did everything he could to end the isolation. Being alone he said, "..was never something Churchill hoped or wished for - it was his fear" (about 2:05 secs in). 

Now nearly eighty years later it's official government policy.