Theresa May is making a colossal mess of Brexit. It's probably the biggest mess since messes were first invented. Theresa May's jaw-dropping performance yesterday might be a reflection on the strain she is under but I wouldn't be surprised to see her being led away from today's summit in Brussels under sedation. She seems close to a nervous breakdown. It began at midday in PMQ's where she 'castigated' MPs for their 'indulgence' and 'navel gazing', accusing them of being the Brexit blockers. The woman who has shown an Olympic standard of can-kicking and clock running down thinks MPs are responsible for the need to now ask for a delay. Can someone get the PM a mirror?
It prompted a furious response later in an emergency debate from Dominic Grieve (HERE) which I am happy to give some extracts from below because they are stunning from a normally loyal MP and have been widely quoted already.
To compound it all she then went on TV later in the evening to address the nation where she continued the rant and rehearsed all the same arguments again - she wasn't to blame, it is all the fault of MPs. These are the very men and women she will need next week to support her deal in the third meaningful vote. It was a spectacular own goal. I'd be surprised if she now manages a defeat below the 149 she lost by in MV2.
After her address the BBC were trying to find tweets from senior people which supported the PM and could not fine one! There were any number of negative tweets.
How strange that she has spent the best part of three years trying to keep the Tories together yet last night she drove a massive wedge between herself, the parliamentary party and probably most of the members too. It was absolutely insane.
Where does it leave us?
She goes to Brussels today to get the 'short' Article 50 extension which Donald Tusk says is 'possible' on condition she can get her deal approved by parliament next week (HERE) which in practice means it's impossible. MPs are not going to support her deal. Even getting an extension is not guaranteed since France, Spain and Belgium are said to be ready to veto it (HERE).
However, I do expect them to agree a short extension to May 23rd but it will be irrelevant anyway.
When the deal is voted down again next week we will be staring disaster in the face. If we crash out without a deal on Friday at 11:00 pm UK time - something I have been saying for months is not going to happen - the blame can be squarely laid at the feet of the prime minister. I don't believe she will ever be forgiven.
But I think we will see her 'no deal is better than a bad deal' mantra shown up for what it was - ridiculous. When her deal goes down for the third and final time, she will either ask for a long extension or revoke Article 50, probably the former. The Institute for Government (HERE) thinks a long extension is back on the table.
If the unthinkable occurs and we crash out in eight days time it will poison relations with Europe for years. Sooner or later we will have to go cap-in-hand to Brussels asking for a trade deal and rest assured it won't be the deep and ambitious one that she envisaged but a bog standard one negotiated in mutual mistrust. Sir Ivan Rogers think this would take a few days in the ensuing chaos but however long it takes we will need to have a trading relationship and the longer it takes to get there the more damage we will do to our economy. This is why the PM cannot allow no deal to happen.
She also seems to think she has something up her sleeve for next week (or is it a rabbit in her hat?) since her letter to Tusk yesterday included this:
"I also intend to bring forward further domestic proposals that confirm my previous commitments to protect our internal market, given the concerns expressed about the backstop".
What does this mean? Who knows?
She cannot be as confident as she claims of getting the deal approved. In fact I don't believe she has a prayer and the other EU leaders must know it even if she doesn't.
May is in a real crisis now. Time has run out. I assume the EU conditions are designed to try and put maximum pressure on MPs but, given yesterdays earth shaking events, I just don't think it will be effective. Brexiteers are happy to see a no deal exit on 29th March and they are never going to be reconciled to May's deal. Labour, SNP and others are implacably opposed and I don't believe enough of them will be prepared to support what they see as a bad deal. May has not endeared herself to MPs from other parties and she will pay the price in the next two weeks.
If MPs vote it down again next week the options will be to leave without a deal - ruled out in a non-binding vote by MPs last week - a lomg extension to give parliament time to decided what consensus exists in the House, or a revocation of Article 50.
Also, just a small point about the letter she sent yesterday. The BBC's Katya Adler claims EU leaders waited and waited for it but it didn't arrive until after Merkel had departed for Brussels so she wasn't able to consult with German MPs in the Bundestag to determine her response. How ironic. May never consults anybody, even her own cabinet - ever.
I am truly worry what's happening to the country. MPs are getting death threats and shocking emails and are concerned for their own safety and security. Wes Streeting Labour MP tweeted this last night:-
I’ve thought long and hard before saying this, but @theresa_may knows that MPs across the House are subjected to death threats - some very credible. Her speech was incendiary and irresponsible. If any harm comes to any of us, she will have to accept her share of responsibility.— Wes Streeting MP (@wesstreeting) 20 March 2019
And what are we to make of the news that a group of truckers are planning a go-slow affecting various motorways this weekend including the M18 and the M1 in South Yorkshire (HERE). They are protesting about Brexit NOT happening on March 29th. It will be interesting to see if anything comes of it but it is not encouraging.
We seem on a slow descent into a full blown national crisis and Theresa May will be held responsible for it.
And finally, the promised extracts from Dominic Grieve's speech:
"When my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister came to the Dispatch Box today at Prime Minister’s questions, I confess that it was the worst moment I have experienced since I came into the House of Commons. I have never felt more ashamed to be a Member of the Conservative party or to be asked to lend her support. She spent most of her time castigating the House for its misconduct. At no stage did she pause to consider whether it is, in fact, the way that she is leading this Government that might be contributing to this situation. I have great sympathy for her. I have known her for many years and we have a personal friendship beyond and outside of this House, but I have to say that I could have wept—wept to see her reduced to these straits and wept to see the extent to which she was now simply zig-zagging all over the place, rather than standing up for what the national interest must be".
"We may now have to do this [get a consensus] very quickly. But I have to say this in conclusion: if we do not do it, one has to ask oneself the question, what is the purpose of this Government? What are they doing? How are they furthering the national interest? How are they contributing to the quiet good governance that I think most people in this country want? We really are—I am sorry to say this—at the 11th hour and 59th minute. The Government’s credibility is running out. Trust in them is running out. Unless my right hon. Friend the Prime Minister, by some great exertion of will—and she has plenty of will and plenty of robustness—stands up and starts doing something different, we are going to spiral down into oblivion, and the worst part of it all is that we will deserve it".
