All thoughts are turning this weekend to the next 'meaningful' vote (MV3) on Wednesday. It hasn't escaped my attention that the previous two quickly became 'meaningless' votes but let us not be churlish or ungrateful. There is much speculation that MV3 will indeed fail again, but by a narrower margin and I think that's probably right. If the number gets to 50 or so this would be quite a good result, but nowhere near good enough.
Make no mistake, this really will be a turbulent week with far reaching consequences and as yet no clear idea where things will end. For a modern, developed western economy, the fifth largest in the world (at the moment) this in itself is shocking. We are an absolute laughing stock.
First of all, will there actually be another vote next week? Robert Peston (HERE) thinks it isn't guaranteed. Unless Mrs May is assured she can get down to a less humiliating defeat she may not even put the deal to parliament. In my opinion May will probably convince herself she has a chance whatever happens.
The DUP are reportedly getting closer to agreeing to support May's deal, according to a report by Reuters HERE. It appears the government is promising to put into law a requirement that there cannot be a divergence between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. This would mean if there is no agreement between the UK and the EU to avoid a hard border it would be impossible for Ulster to be separated from the mainland. This might suit the DUP but it won't suit everybody. The backstop could still keep the whole UK in regulatory lockstep and the customs union. I can't see it helps that much. Others say the DUP are after a seat at the future trade talks. If so, they probably won't end before 2040 and Ulster will soon after look like Dubai. With the DUP it's always about money in the end - and they don't come cheap.
So, on those two provisos we come to the MPs who are going to decide our fate. Will they or won't they vote for her deal? I think not.
The Telegraph had an article on Friday (HERE) by Associate editor Camilla Tominey, suggesting the fate of the PM's deal is in the hands 19 hardline Eurosceptics, what it calls irreconcilables, waverers and converts. It reports that David Davis himself voted for the deal in MV2 last week for example. The article claims:
"Brexiteer “convert” Martin Vickers, who switched to backing the deal last week, has crunched the numbers and calculates that “all but 15 of the hardcore” ERG members will end up voting for the Withdrawal Agreement".
The best the government can muster is 324 votes (HERE) if all their MPs and the DUP vote together. The opposition has the same number giving a working majority of 0. If Vickers is right and the 15 ERG members vote against the deal, she will lose by 30 votes. But some labour rebels (just 3 on the last vote) will reduce that while some Tory remainers (probably more than 3) will increase it.
Professor Chris Grey (HERE), who writes an excellent blog, makes the suggestion that some pragmatic Tory MP remainers who voted for the deal in MV2 might decide not to do so in MV3 to show the ERG they don't have a monopoly on awkwardness and with the prospect of getting a long delay and stopping Brexit altogether they may be tempted. Intriguing and perhaps even possible.
All the extreme pro Brexit websites (HERE for example) are cranking up the pressure on the ERG and other Euro sceptic MPs to hold their nerve and vote the Withdrawal Agreement down but no doubt many waverers and those previously opposed to the deal will vote for it as the last hope of getting something that vaguely represents the shape of Brexit. Others, like Owen Paterson and BoJo have said far too much in the past, spoken out firmly against the deal and harbour leadership ambitions among Tory grassroots members who are all vehemently against it.
Farage has said the deal is worse than the one we have now. How can any credible Euro sceptic vote for the deal and keep his reputation with the faithful? It would be like the Pope telling the assembled crowd in Vatican Square that Catholicism isn't all it's cracked up to be.
Something that has not been discussed, as far as I know, is what could happen in the future assuming May's deal eventually gets through. It will certainly not settle the issue. Nobody is going to be happy. If Labour win a future election it's not out of the question their manifesto might include rejoining the customs union. They may then open negotiations to do exactly that. Or even rejoin the single market through an Association agreement. At the very least, as Chris Grey puts it:
"If it squeaks through, despite being something that nobody really wants, it will set up years of acrimony, slow-burn economic decline and rumbling political crisis. If it is defeated again, all bets are off (including, if it is only narrowly defeated, the tear-your-hair-out possibility of MV4). Very likely that will bring a long extension and if so then at that point the loss of the 29 March ‘independence day’ will become a huge development".
"If it squeaks through, despite being something that nobody really wants, it will set up years of acrimony, slow-burn economic decline and rumbling political crisis. If it is defeated again, all bets are off (including, if it is only narrowly defeated, the tear-your-hair-out possibility of MV4). Very likely that will bring a long extension and if so then at that point the loss of the 29 March ‘independence day’ will become a huge development".
I wonder if the penny will finally drop for the Brexiteers in the ERG? They may come to realise the best option for them (perhaps the only option) is to go for a second referendum. If they genuinely believe Brexit is being stolen or betrayed their best hope is to bypass the establishment and go direct to the people. It would have to be a three way ballot - leave without a deal, leave with May's deal or stay.
If leave won again it would put the issue beyond any doubt. Will they risk it?
If leave won again it would put the issue beyond any doubt. Will they risk it?
