Well, the indicative votes process told us something last night. It said there is no majority in parliament for ANY deal at all. We are in a political cul-de-sac and there seems no obvious exit. I suppose it revealed for the first time exactly what sort of impasse we have in the House of Commons, which might focus minds, either for Mrs May's deal tomorrow or the second stage of this indicative process next Monday. I still don't see May's deal getting approval because the DUP and a big section of the ERG are still against it. We were already a laughing stock, now we've gone beyond even that.
If no alternative comes out of next Monday's efforts it must mean a long delay is inevitable and push a general election or a second referendum to the top of the agenda.
However, with Mrs May declaring she will stand down shortly can she really call a general election? Probably not. Can she step down quickly and let another leader take over? Is a Tory leadership election followed by a GE a good idea? Probably not. If it did happen is it guaranteed to resolve the problem? No. For these reasons I think we can rule out a general election.
All of this means a confirmatory vote must be more likely. It would have the effect of coming to a clear decision and as far as I can see is the ONLY solutions that offers certainty.
All the amendments are listed on yesterday's Commons Order paper (HERE) at page 11. The final result last night was as follows:
B - No deal. Ayes 160 - 400 Noes
D - Common Market 2.0 188 - 283
H - EFTA/EEA 65 - 377
J - Customs Union 264 - 272
K - Labour's plan 237 - 307
L - Revoke Article 50 184 - 293
M - Confirmatory vote 268 - 295
O - Contingent Arrangements 139 - 422
The last amendment (O) is essentially a managed no deal exit. Note the confirmatory vote (M) was the most popular and I think we have just taken a huge leap towards it. What the figures reveal is the central problem of Brexit in numbers. There is no majority in The House to be close to the EU and none to be distant either. It is the conundrum that has haunted the negotiations from the outset and we have still not resolved it. Only a People's Vote can do that.
Leaving without a deal (B) as proposed by the imbecile John Baron was massively defeated although 159 other MP's thought it was a good idea.
Theresa May's massive strategy failure is also clear. Had we known early in 2017 there was no majority for any obvious solution to Brexit, Article 50 would never have been triggered when it was. We could have spent time trying to arrive at a compromise before setting the clock going and would have been in a far better position now.
It's very hard to see the PM's deal getting through. There is perhaps an argument to be made that all the different groups will believe their own preferred options are still available and will be inclined to support a long delay. More than that the Brexiteers may come to see that a People's Vote is perhaps the ONLY way to get a hard Brexit. It would be a last desperate throw of the dice.
Will MPs even get another chance to vote on May's deal? The Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay, told the House that the government would bring MV3 back this week but the speaker has warned them that it must meet his test of being substantially different. It remains to be seen what changes they can or will make and whether Bercow will allow the deal to be voted on for a third time. If not, the ERG may regret voting against it before.
Having listened to many heated debates on Brexit in the House of Commons, the one yesterday on the indicative votes motion seemed to me to be a bit different. There was a desire among ordinary members to come together to resolve the crisis, particularly by the sponsors and co-sponsors of the eight amendments selected by the speaker.
Dame Margaret Beckett gave an excellent speech supporting amendment M to put the final deal back to the people in confirmatory vote.
She said three things which I think are important. First, that not one of the eight amendments or May's deal itself, reflect what the people were told in 2016. Second, that there will be no gaining of sovereignty and only a loss of it as we become a rule taker. Third, opinion is changing and if parliament forces a deal through against the wishes of a majority it will be the biggest establishment stitch up of all time. She said it should be up to the British people to decide what comes next.
The DUP and the ERG will now come under enormous pressure.
Both Johnson and Rees-Mogg have indicated they will support the deal - with caveats in JRM's case - but I am not sure this is going to do their leadership ambitions much good. Rees-Mogg has said in the past (HERE):
"People voted to leave, they didn't vote for a deal. The government has come up with a deal that does not deliver on the manifesto of 2017 or the referendum."
"Her Brexit deal is dreadful. The Brexit we are getting with the withdrawal deal is not a proper Brexit. Nothing is going to be worse than what we're being offered."
"It looks very likely that the government will lose the withdrawal agreement and it's a bad agreement, so that's a good thing."
"It's not so much the vassal state any more, it's the slave state."
You cannot make these sorts of comments and then support the deal. Activists do not see leaving with no deal as a bad thing and cannot understand why a man they thought had principles seems to be wavering and flip-flopping. I suspect BoJo will find the same.
It looks like he will now vote for the deal that he called a 'suicide vest' and resigned from the cabinet over. It's clear resistance to her deal is crumbling a bit but we can trust Steve Baker (HERE) and others in the ERG not to give a millimetre. They will die in a ditch before supporting her deal.
Theresa May's announcement to the 1922 Committee yesterday afternoon was another mistake. Saying she will go if her deal gets through parliament seems to have failed anyway but at the cost of further weakening her premiership. And as I explained above, I think that it all but makes a general election impossible.
The Put it to the People march on Saturday came at just the right moment. At some future date I will be very proud to say I marched through central London and was for a few hours anyway one in a million. Never will so many owe so much to so few - where have I heard those words before?
The Revoke Article 50 petition rolls on towards six million this morning with 7,056 Selby & Ainsty constituents signing so far.
It's all good.
