Friday 14 June 2019

BOJO - THE BRITISH CRAVING FOR A DARING LIAR

Generally speaking, any new invention or trend that sweeps America sooner or later reaches our shores.  I always assumed and hoped that Donald Trump would be an exception but it seems I am wrong. Boris Johnson now looks like a shoe-in for Tory leader. He beat his nearest rivals handsomely yesterday and takes some momentum into the next round on Tuesday, if he avoids a meltdown moment on Channel 4 at the weekend - assuming he doesn't chicken out of the debate altogether.

H L Mencken once wrote, "The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the most daring liars; the men they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth."

I think we can now substitute British for American in this quotation. Johnson is nothing if not a daring liar. In fact one might say he is nothing except a daring liar.

It must surely be a mark of the sheer panic and desperation that the Conservative party (the clue is in the title) should believe such a totally amoral man could or should become prime minister. They are going for what I think might be known as the s**t or bust approach. It looks like they have given up on using normal diplomacy and enlightened self-interest or even logic and rational thinking, and are now going for a wing, a prayer and pure hope.

There was a time (surely) when a politician telling fibs would have ended his or her career. This became too high a bar, so we began to accept a bit of misrepresentation. Then a few mild untruths. It was a slippery slope. Soon the most outrageous bare-faced lies were seen as normal, "they all do it".  Now we have finally reached the bottom. Not only do we accept lies - we demand lies! We elect liars to high office and worship them.

According to Jonathan Lis, BoJo's premiership will end in disaster before it's got started (HERE) and I agree with him. Most new prime ministers have months, even years to settle in. The press call it a honeymoon. Johnson won't have one, he will be straight into the biggest crisis facing the British government since 1939. He compares himself to Churchill but time will show how risible this is.

It will be very neat if the liar who started Brexit off as a bit of a prank, making up lies about the EU, is finally destroyed by it.

How fitting it would be for the man who told us in February 2016 that after Brexit the Irish border would remain 'absolutely unchanged', to be brought down by that very border issue. He actually likened it to the border between two London boroughs.

He suggests he will be able to go to Brussels in a new 'spirit of optimism' and get the backstop 'dropped'. This is beyond stupid. The EU won't do it and their negotiating team has been broken up anyway, yet members of the Tory party both in and out of parliament believe him!  For God's sake, wake up.

Ollie Robbins, Theresa May's chief negotiator, has no doubt read the runes and realised his days are numbered. Ministers will have a far more direct role under BoJo. The people who understand the details will be replaced by those who don't. Probably because details tend to inhibit your thinking. After all what is a good fantasy except reality with all the facts removed.

Note this tweet about the past quality of British civil servants working in Brussels

The impossible brief is now being replaced by the ludicrous.

The first 'fact' BoJo's team will notice after arriving in Brussels is that there isn't anyone to negotiate with. Michel Barnier is the favourite to take over from Juncker as Commission President, his deputy Sabie Weyand has been promoted to Trade Commissioner (HERE) and the whole EU negotiating team has been disbanded (HERE).

The next 'fact' the new team of fantasists will need to face up to is the negotiations are closed and will not be reopened. Indeed they cannot be reopened for if the EU were to do so the French would want to discuss fishing rights, the Spanish Gibraltar and so on. The Commission might ask Boris what the UK's attitude would be if next year, having renegotiated the WA but before it was ratified, Ireland wanted to reopen the negotiations? Would we agree? When does the reopening stop?

No, the WA is the WA and the next PM is going to have to decide to like it or lump it.  If I was the EU I would refuse a delay and force the British government to come to its senses.

The next few months are going to be wild. We will have crises aplenty and many twists and turns but keep these two simple unavoidable truths at the forefront of your mind:

1) We NEED a trade deal with the EU, our largest market and biggest supplier.

2) The ONLY way to get it is via the WA or membership.

If Johnson goes for no deal (and I do not believe he will for one second) it would be a catastrophe but sooner or later, he or far more likely another PM will have to come back to the two unavoidable truths anyway and either sign the WA, pay the money and accept the backstop or reapply for EU membership. It will have cost trillions and achieve nothing.

A letter in the pages of The Yorkshire Post from Dick Lindley (HERE) of Altofts says it all. He congratulates BoJo for, "telling the robbers running the EU that they can whistle for their £39bn leaving charge unless we get a suitable deal," seemingly oblivious that the UK's most senior law officer has already said we will have to pay it whatever happens. It would be illegal not to.

I wouldn't like to meet Dick down a dark alley wearing an EU T-shirt because he's clearly got a bit of a downer on anything east of Filey. The EU is full of 'fat cats' and 'dictators' who are issuing 'anti-British demands'. He looks forward to the collapse of the 'EU nightmare' and thinks Poland and Hungary are also about to escape 'the shackles of the EU with which they are enslaved at this moment in time'.  

There's a lot going on there. I hope Mrs Lindley keeps a flannel handy to wipe off the foam occasionally and some surgical gloves to gently push his eyeballs back in.

This is where we are.
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