It was Javid and Gove who went out yesterday leaving Johnson to face Jeremy Hunt in the run off. Which means Johnson is a safe bet to be prime minister, unless he's arrested for murder or found to be in the pay of Vladimir Putin - and it's not impossible he could survive both. Conservative members are happy to see their party and the nation smashed in order to get Brexit so forgiving him for treason or wasting a few people wouldn't present any hurdle to them. Brexit really means Brexit.
However, I think his election might turn out to be a good thing in the end.
The Guardian thinks it will mean a Brexiteer finally owning the mess they (he) created and this is welcome. There cannot be any heckling from the wings when he fails to 'deliver'. The ERG will have their own chosen man in the vanguard and when (not if) it all goes wrong what will they say? That BoJo was a secret remainer all along? This will probably happen and it's also true. But how will the voters see it?
On Newsnight last night Mark Urban said he had spoken to FCO officials during BoJos time there and when Urban suggested Boris actually believed in Brexit they simply smiled and shook their heads. He doesn't believe in anything.
Varadkar and other leaders at the EU summit in Brussels yesterday were adamant the Withdrawal Agreement would not be reopened and there will be no more negotiations. The Irish PM said without the backstop there will be no agreement and without an agreement there will be no transition period. He also ruled out another extension unless there was either a general election or a new referendum.
Where does this leave Johnson?
In a deep hole. He has staked all on getting the deal renegotiated. This is never going to happen. His fallback position is to leave without a deal. I don't think he will do this either and parliament would probably find a way to block it. Moreover, the GFA, an international treaty would have a coach and horses driven through it by Britain, one of the signatories to it!
We are beginning to see Johnson's shoot-from-the-hip approach to everything coming back to plague him. It was him who said in February 2016 the Irish border would remain 'absolutely unchanged' when asked about it during a speech at the DUP annual conference. He now has to show how this can be done while having different tariffs and regulations on different sides of the border. The world will be watching to see how this miracle will happen.
This morning, Mark Carney, the BoE governor, has dismissed Boris' claim, made during the BBC debate on Tuesday, that we could somehow use GATT Article XXIV to keep zero tariffs. This was and still is a favourite among the Brexiteer lies but Carney has now poured cold water on it. Think about this. The governor of the BoE has flatly contradicted the future PM.
This is the kind of scrutiny Johnson will come under as PM. In the past he was seen as a buffoon who frequently made gaffes and everyone accepted he was a bit of a fool, not to be taken seriously. But prime ministers can alter the Sterling exchange rate, or provoke a stock market crash with a single wrong word so every utterance has to be carefully weighed. BoJo's tongue seems to have a mind of its own.
Boris actually said in January this year that no deal is indeed what we all voted for in 2016!
"They didn't vote for anything like Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement. They voted to come out. It is No Deal or WTO terms that actually corresponds to their idea of coming out, and they view that option with a confidence that is now directly proportional to the growing strength of Government warnings against it."
Damian Hinds, who is supporting Johnson was on Politics Live yesterday lunchtime and said May's deal was 'dead' but went on to admit that if the backstop issue could be finessed in some way it would be acceptable. Andrew Neil found this as puzzling as the rest of us. Rather than being dead, the deal looks in rude health except it needs a haircut or its toenails cutting.
However, I think his election might turn out to be a good thing in the end.
The Guardian thinks it will mean a Brexiteer finally owning the mess they (he) created and this is welcome. There cannot be any heckling from the wings when he fails to 'deliver'. The ERG will have their own chosen man in the vanguard and when (not if) it all goes wrong what will they say? That BoJo was a secret remainer all along? This will probably happen and it's also true. But how will the voters see it?
On Newsnight last night Mark Urban said he had spoken to FCO officials during BoJos time there and when Urban suggested Boris actually believed in Brexit they simply smiled and shook their heads. He doesn't believe in anything.
Varadkar and other leaders at the EU summit in Brussels yesterday were adamant the Withdrawal Agreement would not be reopened and there will be no more negotiations. The Irish PM said without the backstop there will be no agreement and without an agreement there will be no transition period. He also ruled out another extension unless there was either a general election or a new referendum.
Where does this leave Johnson?
In a deep hole. He has staked all on getting the deal renegotiated. This is never going to happen. His fallback position is to leave without a deal. I don't think he will do this either and parliament would probably find a way to block it. Moreover, the GFA, an international treaty would have a coach and horses driven through it by Britain, one of the signatories to it!
We are beginning to see Johnson's shoot-from-the-hip approach to everything coming back to plague him. It was him who said in February 2016 the Irish border would remain 'absolutely unchanged' when asked about it during a speech at the DUP annual conference. He now has to show how this can be done while having different tariffs and regulations on different sides of the border. The world will be watching to see how this miracle will happen.
This morning, Mark Carney, the BoE governor, has dismissed Boris' claim, made during the BBC debate on Tuesday, that we could somehow use GATT Article XXIV to keep zero tariffs. This was and still is a favourite among the Brexiteer lies but Carney has now poured cold water on it. Think about this. The governor of the BoE has flatly contradicted the future PM.
This is the kind of scrutiny Johnson will come under as PM. In the past he was seen as a buffoon who frequently made gaffes and everyone accepted he was a bit of a fool, not to be taken seriously. But prime ministers can alter the Sterling exchange rate, or provoke a stock market crash with a single wrong word so every utterance has to be carefully weighed. BoJo's tongue seems to have a mind of its own.
Boris actually said in January this year that no deal is indeed what we all voted for in 2016!
"They didn't vote for anything like Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement. They voted to come out. It is No Deal or WTO terms that actually corresponds to their idea of coming out, and they view that option with a confidence that is now directly proportional to the growing strength of Government warnings against it."
Damian Hinds, who is supporting Johnson was on Politics Live yesterday lunchtime and said May's deal was 'dead' but went on to admit that if the backstop issue could be finessed in some way it would be acceptable. Andrew Neil found this as puzzling as the rest of us. Rather than being dead, the deal looks in rude health except it needs a haircut or its toenails cutting.
What is Johnson's position? Nobody knows. It is all reminiscent of the Vote Leave campaign's fuzzy objectives where everyone's version of Brexit can be projected onto Bojo.
He is a gift to the SNP, Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru anyway. Leaving without a deal will only hasten the break up of the Union. He will go down in history as the antithesis of his hero Churchill.
The YouGov poll this week showing a majority of Conservative party members would prefer the break up of their own party (54%) and Scottish independence (63%) to stopping Brexit. It has become a cause célèbre for a lot of people, including Elizabeth from Clacton who spoke to Gove yesterday on LBC in what was a bizarre exchange. He likened a short delay to Brexit to having a new kitchen where the hob was going to be delivered just a couple of days late.
On the capital's radio station she said she would rip out the entire kitchen and demand her money back! Listen to it, it is quite an eye opener. But terrifying.
So, what are Johnson's options?
Renegotiate the Withdrawal agreement
Get a delay beyond October 31st
Get a no deal Brexit through parliament
Force no deal through somehow and destroy British
industry
He is a gift to the SNP, Sinn Fein and Plaid Cymru anyway. Leaving without a deal will only hasten the break up of the Union. He will go down in history as the antithesis of his hero Churchill.
The YouGov poll this week showing a majority of Conservative party members would prefer the break up of their own party (54%) and Scottish independence (63%) to stopping Brexit. It has become a cause célèbre for a lot of people, including Elizabeth from Clacton who spoke to Gove yesterday on LBC in what was a bizarre exchange. He likened a short delay to Brexit to having a new kitchen where the hob was going to be delivered just a couple of days late.
On the capital's radio station she said she would rip out the entire kitchen and demand her money back! Listen to it, it is quite an eye opener. But terrifying.
So, what are Johnson's options?
On the surface it's revoke Article 50. This is his only option where he has a completely free hand but it would destroy him. He has put himself in a zugzwang. Johnson will be defusing a bomb he himself helped to make. It will be a delicate operation. One false move and he's finished and remember this is a man for whom faux pas' are a way of life. It will not end well.
Finally, can I point you to this Tweet from Lewis Goodall at Sky News:
He’s the runaway favourite to be PM.— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) 20 June 2019
