IS THE EU OFFERING BORIS AN OLIVE BRANCH ALREADY?

By the time this post is published I'll be on the coach for the March for Change in London, so just a short one this morning. I don't know what to make of a report that appeared in The Guardian last night (HERE) claiming the EU are to offer Boris Johnson an extension to the October 31st deadline, even before he's asked for one!  According to Daniel Boffey, their Brussels correspondent:

"The extra period of EU membership would be used for renegotiation but could be billed to Conservative Brexiters as an opportunity to prepare further for leaving without a deal.

"'It will be described as a technical delay to save Boris from political embarrassment but then we will have time to find an agreement,' said one senior EU diplomat".

It's written as if Conservative Brexiteers don't read The Guardian and won't be at all suspicious of another extension.  My guess is Steve Baker and his mates in the ERG will be furious.

Apparently, this week's parliamentary shenanigans have convinced EU leaders that a no deal crash out can be avoided with the help of rebel Tory MPs and although the WA will not be reopened, they are prepared to discuss the political declaration and refine things to avoid the backstop.

Is this a clever move?  I'm not sure. Brexiteers might even be emboldened to think the EU is softening its position and a few more threats might just get the backstop junked altogether. 

On the other hand the EU want to avoid any hint of blame and this would allow them to say a no deal Brexit, assuming it got past the House of Commons, was entirely the choice of the British side. One might even think Sir Ivan Rogers has been involved in some way since he is always keen to caution the EU about pushing us too far.

There is a recognition in Brussels that if we were to leave without a deal, the ill-feeling and bitterness will take years to dissipate but they are also preparing in case it comes to that:

"EU leaders are also considering the steps they would take to avoid a crisis in the event that Johnson does press ahead with no deal on 31 October. A declaration has been mooted expressing the EU27’s regret at the lack of a deal and offering to re-engage if the UK accepts its financial commitments.

" 'How do we build back out of the abyss in a time where minds on both sides of the channel are probably not very consolatory?' a second diplomat said. 'We need to preempt that moment and create a platform for reengagement on the day the UK leaves which might be used once the dust has settled. Provided of course the existing obligations are settled'."

That last bit is also a reminder to the UK that whatever the outcome and however long a rapprochement takes, we will still face the bill at the end and perhaps even exactly the same backstop mechanism if no 'Alternative Arrangements' are found.

"Senior EU sources said discussions had been held on how to manage the 24 hours before a no-deal Brexit should it happen. The belief voiced in Paris that the UK would react to the economic shock by urgently seeking to reopen talks is not shared by a number of member states that would be most directly affected by a no-deal departure. 'There is the worry among some that a kind of wartime spirit will take over, but we have to put out a hand to Britain,' said one EU diplomat".

I doubt the wartime spirit will take over. The present generation won't take kindly to food shortages and factory closures but it's important that the EU are not framed as the bad guys - and perhaps this is what it's all about.

In the event of a no deal Brexit, the EU's olive branch might be helpful to us in pinning the blame where it rightly belongs, with Farage and the Brexiteers.