Johnson's moment of triumph came as expected yesterday. This afternoon, barring some last minute reprieve, like Carrie Symonds attacking him with a grapefruit knife, he will go to the palace and return as our prime minister. God help us all. If, like me, the very sight of him makes you want to gag, you are going to be in for a rough time over the next few days and weeks. The clown will fill our screens, ad nauseum.
The man with a track record of casual incompetence and failure and whose only qualification is being a highly educated waster will soon be ensconced in No 10 with his acolytes and hangers on. I confidently predict his will be a short-lived tragi-comic premiership, with him cast as something between Mr Pastry and Jim Hacker - plus a bit of Stanley Unwin thrown in.
Make no mistake, we are going to be as badly governed as we have ever been in the past. The cabinet will be stuffed with the Ayatollahs of Brexit where belief and fanaticism count far more than ability and expertise. Teheran will have nothing on London.
It will be a government like no other. Chaotic rule by a comedy administration.
Johnson's call to ban negativity and effectively use the power of positive thinking is to put Brexit in the hands of a few self-help gurus rather than experts. He will be a gaffe prone lame duck from day one, having painted himself into an even tighter corner than his predecessor.
The man who wanted to be 'world king' aged 8, has committed himself to unite the nation whilst pursuing the most divisive
policy imaginable and to spend more public money even as he ties the hands of
the wealth creators and erects tariff and regulatory barriers between the country and its
biggest customer. The paradoxes of Brexit will be brutally exposed in
the next few months, not least in Scotland.
There is always a tendency on these occasions to see it as a reverse for remainers and a boost for Brexiteers. Certainly they see it that way but remember, it quickly peters out. When the referendum was lost in 2016, when Article 50 was triggered, when the Joint Report was agreed in December 2017, when the Chequers deal was agreed, when the Withdrawal Agreement was published, they were all cheered as if Brexit itself was imminent but the euphoria soon dissipated. So, do not despair.
The clown will fail. He will fail because Brexit itself is the problem.
He
comes to office already on borrowed time. The bomb's countdown clock is
set for midnight Brussels time on 31st October. I can't remember any
prime minister ever taking power in such circumstances, facing a
veritable storm
of problems, and certainly not one as badly kitted out as Johnson is to cope
even with the calmest of waters. He will soon have full blown parliamentary,
constitutional, Sterling and diplomatic crises on his hands.
Already in hock to the hard right up to his eyeballs and regarded as a charlatan and chancer by moderates, when he fails to deliver Brexit, as he most certainly will, neither side will have any further use for him and he'll be gone before you can say 1922 committee. Accepting
the deal will finish him with the ERG and the Tory right. Taking us out
without a deal will finish him (and the Tories) with the electorate. How fitting it would be if the runaway train of Brexit ran down the man who released the brake.
The Irish Times think Johnson is more than capable of betraying the Brexiteers and he may yet prove more pliable that Mrs May:
"It’s not merely that his famous ill-preparedness, weakness on detail and
lack of focus will make him a poor negotiator, though that is true.
More importantly, this is a man of few discernible fixed views, little
interest in consistency, and with an unending capacity for
self-contradiction"
I agree with this. The simple, inescapable truth is that we need a trade deal. Leaving without an agreement would be catastrophic for our economy and it would be utterly irrational for Britain to chase trade deals everywhere on the planet except on the continent that we are part of. Sooner or later, and probably very soon after, perhaps under another prime minister, we would be forced to accept the backstop, the £39 billion divorce bill and everything else in order to get an FTA.
Johnson's reputation for telling people and audiences what they most want to
hear is characteristic of a coward, someone afraid of confrontation. The
idea that he will be an effective PM is laughable. As for thumping the
table in Brussels demanding the backstop is 'chucked' as well as
continuing frictionless trade, forget it.
This is the bottom line. Johnson will not get a better deal. He will need to 'sell' the existing one.
Brexiteers
are right to believe May's deal is a bad one. It's far inferior to the
one we have now, but it's the best we are going to get as a leaving
member. The choice is a bad deal or the worst possible outcome, no deal
at all. This was always going to be true.
The only other alternative is to remain and keep the deal we've got. There is nothing else.
Whichever way it is, Johnson will be the loser.
The only danger for us is that his sunny, optimistic message on Brexit will temporarily chime with soft remainers and the polls move away from remaining in the EU and more towards an increased majority for leaving. It will be his upbeat message against warnings from industry and agriculture such as this one from the Food & Drink Federation yesterday which exhorted the new PM:
"[A no-deal Brexit] will inflict
serious and - in
some cases mortal - damage on UK food and drink. Prices will rise, there will be
significant shortages of
some products, and disruption for shoppers and consumers will be far reaching.
We urge the new Prime
Minister and Government to work with us to deliver a withdrawal agreement that
guarantees the closest
possible trade and regulatory relationship with our nearest neighbours so UK
food and drink can
flourish.”
The British Chambers of Commerce talked of a 'severe economic downturn' unless we get a good deal.
It's hard to be positive when your livelihood is at risk. It would take more than Johnson's naturally cheerful disposition to cheer you up as you look at your P45.
The bright spot for us is that a second referendum just got a bit closer.
