It seems the EU will grant a three month extension as expected, but with the option to leave formally at the end of the month in which the agreement is ratified, assuming it ever is of course. That means we could be out by the end of November, December or January. This is hardly a surprise, although it should be noted that the extension is not yet official and may not be announced until the result of the current parliamentary equivalent of the Eton wall game is concluded.
Today the government is expected to put another motion before the House calling for an election on 12th December, giving MPs just a few extra days to debate, amend and vote through the WAB. Nobody expects this to succeed.
The government is also apparently considering the idea proposed by the SNP/LibDems for a bill to be drafted, overriding the Fixed Term Parliament Act, which only requires a simple majority.
The LibDems and the SNP seem to have given up on getting a confirmatory vote and are pushing for a GE even earlier on December 9th, something the government is warming to apparently even though initially they dismissed it as a "gimmick". However, as I understand it the two opposition parties want the WAB dropped temporarily and an assurance from Johnson that a no deal Brexit will not be contemplated at any time. One marvels at the sheer naivety of politicians. Who would trust an assurance from Johnson?
I really do not understand what Jo Swinson and the Liberal Democrats are doing. Putting forward an option for a general election on December 9th seems reckless and aimed squarely at narrow party interests. The SNP's enthusiasm is predictable. A Johnson government would be a gift for Scottish independence, but really what have the LibDems got to gain beyond a few seats?
Also the bill, supposedly "tightly drafted" will be amendable and could included stuff which is unpalatable for one side or another. The next couple of days will be eventful - to put it mildly.
An opinion poll for The Guardian shows just 29% think holding the original referendum was right while almost twice as many (57%) think it was a mistake and should never have been called. I can understand this from the 48% but it demonstrates just how many leave voters are not happy that they are getting what they voted for. I expect this 57% will continue to grow as the 29% falls.
Even more puzzling is the 16% lead that Johnson's Conservatives have over Labour. I think this says a lot about Corbyn and also perhaps about the sheer confusion in most people about Brexit and its impact on their lives.
Another poll in Northern Ireland is even more interesting. It shows 72% would now vote to remain in the EU with just 28% supporting Johnson's deal. The province voted 55% to remain in 2016 but is now overwhelmingly in favour of EU membership. Imposing a settlement which has just 28% support does not seem like a sustainable solution to me but we will see what happens. The poll also shows almost two thirds of the population think Brexit makes Irish unification within the next ten years more likely.
Johnson can expect a lot of opposition from the DUP and this may prove crucial in the end.
An election is coming by hook or by crook but is the government right to want one? They seem confident but I am not so sure they will end up with a working majority. Scottish Tories (13 seats) expect to be wiped out and Tory seats in the south west won in 2015 from the LibDems are also at risk as are more remain oriented seats in London and the south east. Some Tories who lost the whip may stand as independents and win (Dominic Grieve for instance).
To offset these losses the Tories will need to win a lot of traditional Labour seats in the north - not an easy task.
They may see an increase in their vote share in safe Tory leave oriented constituencies in the shires but it may not translate into additional seats. Labour also have far more grass roots activists, a number likely to be swelled further by many remain supporters of the PV campaign which is targeting 100-130 vulnerable seats with Brexiteer MPs.
Boris Johnson will come under the microscope in a way he hasn't previously. Prime ministers are expected to lead their campaigns with solid policy details, something he is congenitally incapable of doing. Couple this with the risk of some highly embarrassing details emerging about his private life and there is every chance he will not get a majority.
There is still everything to play for. And we all have plenty of work to do.
An opinion poll for The Guardian shows just 29% think holding the original referendum was right while almost twice as many (57%) think it was a mistake and should never have been called. I can understand this from the 48% but it demonstrates just how many leave voters are not happy that they are getting what they voted for. I expect this 57% will continue to grow as the 29% falls.
Even more puzzling is the 16% lead that Johnson's Conservatives have over Labour. I think this says a lot about Corbyn and also perhaps about the sheer confusion in most people about Brexit and its impact on their lives.
Another poll in Northern Ireland is even more interesting. It shows 72% would now vote to remain in the EU with just 28% supporting Johnson's deal. The province voted 55% to remain in 2016 but is now overwhelmingly in favour of EU membership. Imposing a settlement which has just 28% support does not seem like a sustainable solution to me but we will see what happens. The poll also shows almost two thirds of the population think Brexit makes Irish unification within the next ten years more likely.
Johnson can expect a lot of opposition from the DUP and this may prove crucial in the end.
An election is coming by hook or by crook but is the government right to want one? They seem confident but I am not so sure they will end up with a working majority. Scottish Tories (13 seats) expect to be wiped out and Tory seats in the south west won in 2015 from the LibDems are also at risk as are more remain oriented seats in London and the south east. Some Tories who lost the whip may stand as independents and win (Dominic Grieve for instance).
To offset these losses the Tories will need to win a lot of traditional Labour seats in the north - not an easy task.
They may see an increase in their vote share in safe Tory leave oriented constituencies in the shires but it may not translate into additional seats. Labour also have far more grass roots activists, a number likely to be swelled further by many remain supporters of the PV campaign which is targeting 100-130 vulnerable seats with Brexiteer MPs.
Boris Johnson will come under the microscope in a way he hasn't previously. Prime ministers are expected to lead their campaigns with solid policy details, something he is congenitally incapable of doing. Couple this with the risk of some highly embarrassing details emerging about his private life and there is every chance he will not get a majority.
There is still everything to play for. And we all have plenty of work to do.
