Another emotional see-saw last night. My heart sank when MPs voted 329-299 to approve second reading of the WAB which means it will probably go through at some point - if given the chance. I waited with trepidation for the programme motion vote to be announced and cheered when it was defeated by 14 votes. Progress will now be paused although not "pulled" as Johnson had threatened. There is now no chance of it becoming law by October 31st.
What was striking to me about yesterday's debate was how none of the MPs who voted for the bill did so enthusiastically. For the hardline Brexiteers it wasn't hard enough and most MPs just seemed sick of the entire thing. It was as if the dream had died a long time ago and they were now resigned to trying to end the nightmare as soon as possible and forget the whole thing ever happened.
It was surely a symbolic acceptance on all sides that a bad deal was better than no deal and that's about all you can say.
Johnson's has negotiated something that is clearly worse than May's deal since NI has essentially been sacrificed to the EU as a down payment on a future trade deal. The rest will be paid as swathes of industry either moves into the EU or goes to the wall. Some wag said it was the equivalent of negotiating the payment of the full price on a DFS sofa, but he is basking in glory for it.
What happens now? It appears the EU will grant a three month extension so we have a bit more breathing space. In the debate on the bill Johnson told the house that in the event the programme motion was lost, "With great regret I must say that the Bill will have to be pulled, and we will have to go forward, much as the right hon. Gentleman the Leader of the Opposition may not like it, to a general election. I will argue at that election—[Interruption.] No, I will not give way. At that election I will argue “Let’s get Brexit done,” and the Leader of the Opposition will make his case to spend 2020 having two referendums—one on Brexit and one on Scotland—and the people will decide".
Noises coming out of Downing Street this morning are that Johnson would like to go for an election. If we do get one we will all have to work like the devil to prevent Johnson winning a majority and if possible put Corbyn in Downing Street. At least he can't do as much damage as Johnson and he would be gone in five years. A coalition with the LibDems would be even better.
Johnson is confident of victory but I wouldn't be quite so sure. Winter elections are never popular. Labour have some very attractive policies and Corbyn campaigns well. The Brexit Party and Nigel Farage will help to dilute his support and the PV tactical voting campaign will also help. We have willing volunteers who will help campaign for pro-remain candidates. It is still all to play for.
Northern Ireland will I am sure play a big part over the next few months and could well be pivotal in deciding if Brexit goes ahead. There is "boiling anger" among Unionists and Loyalists and many voters in the UK do not yet realise Johnson's deal is likely to lead to the break up of the UK.
A report about the economic consequences of his deal for NI are not encouraging:
"If Johnson’s deal goes through the concern is that the application of EU tariffs would make Northern Ireland firms uncompetitive, while in the event of a no deal Brexit the highly liberalised tariff regime proposed by the UK government is likely to have a substantial impact on the competitiveness and viability of firms in Northern Ireland – notably in agriculture and foodstuffs, but in other sectors too."
A report about the economic consequences of his deal for NI are not encouraging:
"If Johnson’s deal goes through the concern is that the application of EU tariffs would make Northern Ireland firms uncompetitive, while in the event of a no deal Brexit the highly liberalised tariff regime proposed by the UK government is likely to have a substantial impact on the competitiveness and viability of firms in Northern Ireland – notably in agriculture and foodstuffs, but in other sectors too."
NI does not generate enough revenue to support its own public services and the difference (about £9.2 billion) is made up by the UK taxpayer. In fact it costs the UK taxpayer more to support the province than it does to fund our EU membership. If the private sector suffers a hit from Brexit and the new trading conditions, the government will have to provide more financial support or risk a return to violence - or possibly even both.
Johnson's Brexit plan, if allowed to succeed, risks a return of the troubles, a nation divided by a customs and regulatory border in perpetuity and a poorer country. Brexit will have been a Pyrrhic victory.
Incidentally, I looked back on what Sir Bill Cash said in October 2016 about how to repeal the original European Communities Act 1972 and organise our withdrawal from the EU. This is what he told The Centre for Social Justice:
"Some weeks before the Referendum result on 23rd June, I optimistically drafted a short six-clause framework Bill to provide for the repeal of the European Communities Act. This was to indicate the principles which I believe we need to address and which of course, being a Government Bill, would have to be drafted by parliamentary Counsel. It provides in Clauses 1 and 2 for our withdrawal from the European Union and the repeal of the 1972 Act and then provides for all EU law to be transposed into UK law, within exclusively Westminster jurisdiction."
The self-proclaimed expert in constitutional law thought we could withdraw from the EU with a "short repeal Bill" of six-clauses. In fact it is 68 clauses and 435 pages with its explanatory notes and all.
It is just as I have always thought, the Brexiteers had no idea what they were doing - and still don't.
