Yesterday was among the most mystifying since the entire Brexit fiasco started. It began with the government and the rest of us obsessives waiting on the EU to decide if they were prepared to allow another extension. Johnson then called a political cabinet and late in the afternoon announced he wanted a general election on 12th December. But there was a quid pro quo. If MPs wanted more time to consider his WAB they could have a few more days until November 6th provided they agreed to an election in December.
After that date he would prorogue parliament ready for the GE. It also made a mockery of the Commons voting for his Queen's speech, as they did later in the day, by 310-294. If there is an election there must be a new Queen's speech anyway.
The effect of his offer was to give parliament eight days to debate his Withdrawal Agreement Bill as opposed to the three he was offering at the start of the week. Nobody thinks eight days is anywhere near enough time anyway.
He apparently intends to try for a third time on Monday to get an election under the Fixed Term Parliament' Act which requires a two thirds majority in the House. Labour are prevaricating because hardly any of their MPs think Corbyn can win although Corbyn thinks he can. We learned the other day that 140 Labour MPs had told the leadership they wouldn't support an election.
In the end it seems Labour MPs will be told to abstain or vote against. The Irish Times also sets out the position of the other opposition parties, all of whom seem to have various excuses for not supporting an election they all say they want. Johnson's problem is that no one trusts him either to do what he says he will or not to do what he says he won't. The opposition are determined to prevent a no-deal Brexit and rightly so.
He did not indicate what would happen if he doesn't get his way. Failure to get an election would in theory allow much more time to debate the WAB and get it passed by November or December. However, we are told that "Downing Street sources" indicated that the Government would go on strike if Johnson’s plan is rejected by MPs and presumably his WAB would be lost. If anyone can follow his logic or understand what his strategy might be I wish they would explain it to me. I suspect it's the work of Dominic Slack-Oxley.
All of these political and parliamentary shenanigans are not lost on the EU. Ambassadors from the EU27 are to meet this morning and were expected to announce if they would grant a delay, for how long and under what conditions. It now transpires they will wait until early next week to see what happens with the election plotting before making any final decision.
Do not forget, at the moment the legal position is that we leave the EU next Thursday night at 11:00 pm UK time.
Since there is no sense of panic, either in government, in industry and commerce or among members of the public at large, I assume everyone expects a delay. Unfortunately for Johnson his pledge to his party and the country that he would get us out by October 31st "do or die" and "whatever it takes" is certain to be broken. It was a reckless pledge anyway since he was never in control of all the pieces of the puzzle.
The government will now have to pass Secondary legislation to change "exit day" from October 31st to another day which will not be known until perhaps Tuesday next week. It is the Westminster equivalent of stopping the bomb going off a few seconds before detonation - a bit like Sean Connery in Goldfinger. For Johnson it represents a huge set back.
If the WAB passes at some point and we do eventually leave, there will follow what the New York Times calls the start of a "tortuous new race" to agree a trade deal by the end of 2020 - or possibly 2022 if we ask for an extension. No trade expert thinks this is remotely possible and we will in fact still be following EU rules for years after that. The trade deal negotiations will involve a lot of betrayals and damaging compromises.
The break-up of the United Kingdom itself is threatened by Irish reunification and Scottish independence coming that much closer. National output is expected to suffer a near 7% drop (£140 billion a year) by 2030
When people look back and see not just how damaging Brexit was to the nation but the ten year struggle we went through to bring it about and the sheer determination on the part of some politicians headed up by Johnson to make sure we suffered as much damage as possible, it will take some understanding.
How did a modern western democracy think its sovereignty and independence was so threatened, and to such an extent, simply by belonging to an advanced trade bloc that it was worth ten years or more or division, rancour, constitutional upheaval to get out?
It is all beyond me.
