We are definitely entering the Brexit end game this week but how it will all turn out is anybody's guess. The newspapers this weekend were full of pessimism with The Guardian on Saturday warning the talks are on the "brink of collapse". In a telephone call last night Johnson spoke to Macron who apparently told him the EU will "evaluate at the end of the week whether a deal is possible that respects European Union principles". It would be a surprise if any deal is possible on the basis of Johnson's plan.
Johnson is asking the EU and Ireland to make compromises that they simply cannot do and if any deal is likely at some point the UK will need to come up with something much, much closer to the backstop.
Varadkar in Ireland is trailing in the polls to his rivals Fianna Fail and cannot afford to soften his stance. Nobody expects the EU26 to pressurise Ireland to compromise. Plus it's a historic first for Ireland to be in the stronger position and he must be tempted to not miss the opportunity. If he forces more concessions out of Britain his electoral chances would be boosted I assume. So no incentive for the Irish PM to shift position.
Johnson is not helped by all the opposition parties in NI signing a joint letter rejecting his plans anyway.
However, this is just one front. Johnson is facing trouble on the Jennifer Acuri issue. It emerged this weekend that Johnson recommended her for a £100,000 a year job as head of a quango, a job for which a 27 year old model/entrepreneur seemed woefully under qualified. The London Assembly has given him until Tuesday to hand over all his 'communications' with her while he was mayor of London. If not he will have to appear before them in person, and if he fails to do that he could be looking at three months in jail or an unlimited fine.
Opposition parties are meeting in Westminster this morning to plot their next move in the fight to force Johnson to comply with the law and ask for an extension.
"The Times meanwhile reports that the group will discuss moves to force the Prime Minister to publish any legal advice from Attorney General Geoffrey Cox on his new plan to replace the Brexit agreement's Irish backstop.
"A source involved in the talks said: 'It was Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice that did for Theresa May. What is the legal advice that sits behind this deal?' "
Finally, a decision is expected today from the Scottish Court on whether the court can step in to issue the Article 50 extension request.
Quite a week. By the end of it we may be closer to seeing what is going to happen although we are likely to be shell-shocked at the end of it.
What is surprising to me is the way life is continuing as if nothing was happening. I was out delivering leaflets in sleepy Tadcaster yesterday and everything looked absolutely normal. It appears that people either don't believe we are on the verge of the biggest constitutional crises for centuries or simply don't know what's going on. I don't see any stockpiling or panic on the part of businesses as if they all expect a deal of some sort or an extension to be asked for (by one means or another).
Nobody seems to be expecting a no-deal crash out and I think they're right. The question is who will blink first. My money is on Johnson.
One can see all the frantic activity is on our side and not in Brussels.
