Friday 31 January 2020

The tunnel at the end of the light

We are finally on the edge of the notional cliff. In fourteen hours we take an irreversible leap into the great unknown, technically out of the EU with no quick way back. It's a moment for sad reflection. Ahead of us is an eleven month 'transition' period in which to negotiate a free trade deal. I put transition in inverted commas because the details of the FTA won't be known until the very end in which case we'll be exiting with no 'transition' period at all. Is that reasonable? Probably not. Business and government will almost certainly need a further transition period to build infrastructure and design and test the systems needed. I don't think we will escape another year of transition at least. That's just my opinion of course and we'll see what happens.

A few days ago Dan Hodges wrote an article in The Daily Mail of all places, suggesting some cabinet ministers are getting nervous about the lack of a plan. And well they might. Anyone who thought the last four years was the result of a plan should seek help.  Ministers are apparently questioning if Johnson has a clue what to do next. You have to laugh in these dark times don't you? 

There is no plan. I think we all know that this is true. We are embarking on what is by any measure a massive upheaval, led by a bunch of cowboys winging it. And they're reckless Etonian cowboys at that. 

It will take a minor miracle for everything to work out alright in the end.

Sir Ivan Rogers, speaking to Forum Europe forecasts that "not a great deal will happen in the next few months," after which the trade talks will be "heading for the rocks by the summer and towards a major crisis in autumn 2020."

It's amazing how Brexiteers and their supporters seem to avoid facing any problems. They look but they don't see and they listen but they don't hear, a bit like the three wise monkeys but without the hands over the eyes and ears.

Against what we see as an act of monumental self-harm they are still painting a bright future away from the "tyranny" of Brussels according to Mike Pompeo, US Secretary of State. One might think he had Mordor in mind from Lord of the Rings but with imaginary lines of energy pulsating out of the Berlaymont building like a malign beacon. It's hard to reconcile this with the President of the Commission Ursula Von der Leyen quoting George Elliot at us or the European parliament singing Auld Lang Syne but there you are.  Do read Von der Leyen's speech in full, it's conciliatory with just a hint of steel.

Pompeo can talk, the American administration resembles what most people imagine the waiting room is like at an institution where wild-eyed people are just about to be sectioned.

Those calling for a public inquiry into Brexit can save the time and money. The Telegraph have confessed it was their readers "wot won it". At least we now know who to blame.

Matthew Elliot, formerly CEO of Vote Leave, writes in City AM that today marks the start of a brave new post-Brexit future. He believes that, "free trade is a key driver of prosperity, and felt that the EU had become too protectionist."  Wait till we start negotiating trade deals with the USA, China and India - I'll show you protectionist. Elliot will look back on our 47 year membership as the epitome of free trade.

Richard Littlejohn (a sort of provocative right-wing rent-a-mouth) says in the Daily Mail that Britain can "take a bow — for a triumph of democracy".  I don't think so.  The referendum, a farrago of lies and misinformation itself, was only the final act in a thirty year campaign of mendacity by his newspaper about the EU.  It was hardly democratic.

The Telegraph see a £100 billion deal-making surge in The City, "Chief executives across a gamut of sectors from finance and infrastructure to retail and property hailed an end to damaging political infighting since 2016, saying the nation would be 'stronger' outside the EU".  Needless to say it's all about hedge funds rather than the shop floor workers.  They will not benefit from Brexit.

In Middlesborough where 82.5% voted to leave, they think after Brexit we will be able to "stand on our own two feet"

"You don't need to be educated to see that this country is in decline. We needed to go in a different direction,“ says Lisa Tetlow, a hairdresser sweeping the floor of her shop. ”People need a bit of hope and this is it."

They voted for a bit of hope - now Brexit will only dash it.

The Bank of England have a more downbeat view on it all. They have reduced their growth forecast for the next three years. In 2020 they now expect an 0.8% increase in GDP. This is near stalling and perilously close to recession, which would be most keenly felt in Middlesborough and the north east generally.

The Midlesborough hairdresser's customers may not have noticed Sajid Javid called for another 5% cut in departmental spending. Who said austerity was dead?  The Treasury can obviously see trouble ahead.

This tweet from ex DEXEU minister Steve Baker sums Brexit up for me:
He actually believes a little intellectual elite are planning our lives. He's a grown man with an irrational fear of a tooth fairy.  He uses the word 'capitol' which I take to mean the EU in Brussels but it could equally apply to the Kremlin if you were minded to believe what you read about donations to the Tory party.

Lord Heseltine writes in Politics Home that we now face "an agony of indecision about our destiny" and I think he is unfortunately right. Let us be clear though, ordinary people will pay the price.

Brexit at the moment means different things to different people. We shall never be united until there is some common ground, which will come when a large majority see and acknowledge Brexit has been a fundamental mistake. Rest assured that day will come.

At the moment all we can see is the tunnel at the end of the light.  I hope I'm wrong.
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