Talks got quietly underway in London last Friday between the UK and the EU about a future trade agreement. You didn't know? This is not surprising since it wasn't publicised as far as I know. The talks were between officials and intended to decide the framework for the way in which the negotiations are to be conducted. It was talks about talks. How do I know this? From the ever-reliable Peter Foster who wrote an article about it in The Telegraph yesterday: "EU member states hardening demands for ‘status quo’ access to UK fishing grounds after Brexit."
It's behind a pay wall but fortunately he also tweeted about it:
NEW/EXC: EU member states move to toughen @MichelBarnier#brexit negotiating mandate on fish - while Friday meeting in London reveals SERIOUS gap on structure/goverance of agreement. /1 threadhttps://t.co/ykdHVomhFh— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) February 9, 2020
The article is mainly about EU member states toughening up the Commission's wording on fishing rights and access after Brexit to UK waters. I don't doubt that a very big argument is coming up on fishing but the real point of interest for me is something perhaps far bigger which could derail the talks altogether and very quickly. This is about the governance and the shape of the agreement that the two sides will be aiming for in the coming months. At the very least the outcome will determine which side wants a deal most.
This argument is fundamental to the whole future relationship. Brexit Johnson wants a series of separate bilateral deals, each independent with its own mechanisms for handling breaches by either side. This would create something a bit like Switzerland but far less onerous, without the guillotine arrangement which causes all the agreements to fall if just one is breached. The EU will never allow this. They don't like the Swiss agreement anyway due to its complexity and are anxious not to repeat it and certainly not with an economy much bigger than Switzerland.
This is part of the thread:
This will be the first hard skirmish and I'm not surprised that Foster is reporting that it was "a rocky encounter" with both sides a long way apart. He ends with, "The concern is that this may blow up the entire process long before we even get to the hard part of fish."
I think this is probably right although both sides will want to avoid being blamed. We will see if Johnson will walk away as he claimed. He may want to save the histrionics for later, after all you can't keep making the same empty threat without losing impact. And Sterling has a volatile few months ahead I'm sure. Brexit Johnson's ticking clock is going to work against him here. If this issue takes weeks to resolve the time left for negotiating anything is reduced even further.
The outcome will show who values a free trade deal the most (Hint: it isn't the EU)
This is part of the thread:
EU sources say this is to create a nimble, “cross-cutting” dispute resolution mechanism that will enable the EU to hit Britain where it hurts if an independent arbitration panel finds that the UK is in breach of the Agreement. /12— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) February 9, 2020
This will be the first hard skirmish and I'm not surprised that Foster is reporting that it was "a rocky encounter" with both sides a long way apart. He ends with, "The concern is that this may blow up the entire process long before we even get to the hard part of fish."
I think this is probably right although both sides will want to avoid being blamed. We will see if Johnson will walk away as he claimed. He may want to save the histrionics for later, after all you can't keep making the same empty threat without losing impact. And Sterling has a volatile few months ahead I'm sure. Brexit Johnson's ticking clock is going to work against him here. If this issue takes weeks to resolve the time left for negotiating anything is reduced even further.
The outcome will show who values a free trade deal the most (Hint: it isn't the EU)
Now back to fishing. Foster says member states with fish interests (France, Ireland, Netherlands, Danes, Germans) want to fight for 'status quo' access to UK waters. They were apparently unhappy with the original draft which spoke only of Barnier having to "build on" existing quotas". This has now been revised to "uphold". Again a big row is looming on this. But quoted in the tweet is an article by Tony Connelly at RTE from last November: Hell or high water: Brexit fish talks will be most bruising. It begins:
"Every Monday from early September a French fisheries official would ring the police prefects all along the northeastern French seaboard. The official was anxious to know the level of militancy among fishermen as the 31 October deadline for a no-deal Brexit approached.
"By the middle of the month police were warning the official of advanced plans for French fishing boats to blockade the port of Calais and bring seaborne trade from the UK to a standstill. 'They were planning big action,' says one EU source. 'Whether they would have carried it out or not - my guess is they would. They have nothing to lose.'
In other words, they were preparing to blockade their own ports. The French have a long history of direct action and fishermen are among the most militant. What Connelly describes took place in the run up to the 31st October deadline. Fishing is a tiny but totemic issue and as Connelly says, "Howls of betrayal from both sides will therefore potentially echo around the fish negotiations."
Whatever is finally agreed, if French fishermen don't accept it there will be no British boats unloading shellfish or anything else in French ports post Brexit
Saturday's election in Ireland was a political earthquake. Sinn Fein, the avowedly nationalist pro-unification party topped the poll with 24.5% of first preferences. Fine Gail and Fine Fáil were not far behind, Varadkar's party coming second with 22.2%. It's clear now there is an increasing appetite for unification and an end to almost 100 years of partition.
I doubt that it will happen quickly, but the centenary is coming up in May 2021, and the pressure to put an end to it and unite Ireland will only grow, thanks to Brexit.
