On the day the EU is set to publish its official mandate we are still no clearer about what's going to happen with the NI protocol. The government's official spokesman said yesterday that ports are NOT being asked to implement checks on goods moving between GB and NI, which either means we are going for a very close relationship akin to the SM and CU (some hope) or they intend to ignore or circumvent the protocol. He also said NI would have 'unfettered access' to GB for goods but refused to confirm the same phrase for goods travelling the other way. Make of it what you will.
A former WTO official, Peter Ungphakorn, asks what it means. He tweeted:
He answers his own question and assumes it means the UK accepting EU standards on everything. An exporter in Ireland (EU) will be able to ship goods duty, tariff and check free, via Belfast or Larne to Liverpool or Stranraer direct into the UK market. The British government will not be able to recover tariff revenues on non-EU goods either (bikes from Taiwan for instance). Madness isn't it?What does this mean?— Peter Ungphakorn (@CoppetainPU) February 24, 2020
1. de facto UK recognition of EU standards, so no documentation, checks.
2. UK willing to import EU goods duty-free across this border, even without a free trade deal
3. UK allowing the EU to keep tariff revenue on imports from outside the EU crossing here https://t.co/PrDQmeW7dt
However, spare a thought for James Slack, the spokesman we're talking about.
A few days ago a Lords Committee took evidence from three experts about the NI protocol and what comes across is the fact that nobody knows how it will work! A transcript of the session is HERE.
Dr Sylvia de Mars, a senior lecturer at Newcastle University and an EU law specialist, had this to say in her opening remarks:
"I do not fully understand how they [aspects of the protcol] will work in practice and what their implications are. It is a tremendously complicated piece of legislative work."
"I do not fully understand how they [aspects of the protcol] will work in practice and what their implications are. It is a tremendously complicated piece of legislative work."
David Henig, an international trade expert, echoed it:
"You realise just how complex it is, because we are dealing with not just this protocol, but the Good Friday agreement, the common travel area with Ireland, and World Trade Organization rules; the protocol interfaces with all of those. In the future it will interface with the free trade agreement between the UK and the EU, or any other arrangements put in place."
"You realise just how complex it is, because we are dealing with not just this protocol, but the Good Friday agreement, the common travel area with Ireland, and World Trade Organization rules; the protocol interfaces with all of those. In the future it will interface with the free trade agreement between the UK and the EU, or any other arrangements put in place."
Dr de Mars explained that 300 pieces of EU legislation and 2000 pages of EU customs code will continue to apply to NI. This used to be done by the 1972 European Communities Act. The devolved Stormont government will be responsible for much of it but if they fail to comply it will be the UK government that will face the consequences. Nobody has worked out how the UK government will be able to enforce its will on Stormont.
Then there is the question of future regulations and what happens if NI refuse to accept them. It is a minefield.
David Henig then says:
"For example, there is a very innocuous reference to a particular article of EU law and, when you look at it, that article references in turn the entire customs arrangements and laws of the European Union. I suspect that it would take several people several months to understand this"
Colin Murray, Reader in Public Law at Newcastle University said:
"At the moment, it is easiest to think of Northern Ireland as the centre of a very complicated and convoluted Venn diagram. It is the space in which the European single market and the UK’s internal market will overlap in years to come"
"When you think of Northern Ireland within that space, you have to put together a set of rules that will allow civil servants and members of the Northern Ireland Executive who make policy and administer law while essentially having one foot in each of these different arrangements. That is in itself particularly difficult to envisage."
It becomes clear reading the transcript that more legislation will be needed to implement the protocol in English law, but that hasn't even been drawn up yet. Nobody seems to have any idea how it will all work - or indeed IF it will all work. No wonder ports have not been told to implement checks. It will take months to work through it and produce working rules that are enforceable. I do not believe we will be anywhere near ready by December.
For all the talk of an 'oven ready' deal, I'm afraid the truth is it still needs a lot of preparation.
Then there is the question of future regulations and what happens if NI refuse to accept them. It is a minefield.
David Henig then says:
"For example, there is a very innocuous reference to a particular article of EU law and, when you look at it, that article references in turn the entire customs arrangements and laws of the European Union. I suspect that it would take several people several months to understand this"
Colin Murray, Reader in Public Law at Newcastle University said:
"At the moment, it is easiest to think of Northern Ireland as the centre of a very complicated and convoluted Venn diagram. It is the space in which the European single market and the UK’s internal market will overlap in years to come"
"When you think of Northern Ireland within that space, you have to put together a set of rules that will allow civil servants and members of the Northern Ireland Executive who make policy and administer law while essentially having one foot in each of these different arrangements. That is in itself particularly difficult to envisage."
It becomes clear reading the transcript that more legislation will be needed to implement the protocol in English law, but that hasn't even been drawn up yet. Nobody seems to have any idea how it will all work - or indeed IF it will all work. No wonder ports have not been told to implement checks. It will take months to work through it and produce working rules that are enforceable. I do not believe we will be anywhere near ready by December.
For all the talk of an 'oven ready' deal, I'm afraid the truth is it still needs a lot of preparation.
The EU mandate
It appears we will get the EU27 mandate later today. This was agreed by ambassadors yesterday with a few tweaks which might make agreeing level playing field issues slightly easier.
This tweet from the FT's Brussels correspondent gives an idea on the main changes:
This tweet from the FT's Brussels correspondent gives an idea on the main changes:
I note Adam Fleming on BBC Radio 4 this morning saw the changes to paragraph 92 as an easing of the EU's position on dynamic alignment and I must admit this is how I saw it, too. The initial French hard line has been replaced by softer language and the dynamic alignment idea limited to state aid rules only. I suspect the EU will from now on claim this as a concession. I would also bet that this is very close to the final position that Johnson agrees to.Here are the tweaked changes with the final language on LPF. Now makes it clearer that the UK will be measured against EU standards which will be used as a "reference point". pic.twitter.com/Up0fVeASSX— Mehreen (@MehreenKhn) February 24, 2020
However, David Henig (the same one who sat in the Lords Committee meeting on February 11th) thinks the UK government will still not accept it. He tweeted:
"The UK isn't going to agree to the provisions of EU mandate para 92. Whether that's a deal breaker or an appropriate formulation can be found that both sides agree we wait to see".
The UK mandate will be published on Thursday. We have had a bit of a dig at the time taken by the EU27 to agree their mandate but you can bet Downing Street hasn't consulted anyone on ours. Look out for howls of protest from industry and the devolved governments in Scotland and Wales when the details become clear.
Brexit Johnson has already confirmed we intend to prioritise independence over matters of trade but it seems impossible to me that when it gets to the crunch and real jobs are at stake that they will be able to defend the line. I don't believe the entire cabinet and most Tory MPs are deaf to what business is saying. They all have constituencies for heaven's sake and will bear the responsibility if it goes wrong.
Faisal Islam, BBC Economics editot for example tweeted about Nissan
We have seen how fishermen would also be affected and industry is warning about delays, added costs and shortages next year.
But expect the tough talk to continue until the last minute. This will mean another year of uncertainty and worry for business. The Dutch government announced a few days ago that 140 companies had already made the move to Amsterdam creating 4200 jobs and injecting €375 million into their economy. Another 425 companies are in discussions. What will UK government rhetoric do to persuade them to stay? Not a lot I think.
And a company specialising in recruitment for the Fintech (Financial Technology) business warns that "the city of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, is poised to take over from London as Europe’s leading tech hub, and the main reason is Brexit".
The trickle of companies moving to the EU will turn into a flood this year if the government is not careful about the language it uses and the stance it adopts. If Brexit Johnson doesn't understand that now he very soon will.
Brexit Johnson has already confirmed we intend to prioritise independence over matters of trade but it seems impossible to me that when it gets to the crunch and real jobs are at stake that they will be able to defend the line. I don't believe the entire cabinet and most Tory MPs are deaf to what business is saying. They all have constituencies for heaven's sake and will bear the responsibility if it goes wrong.
Faisal Islam, BBC Economics editot for example tweeted about Nissan
Who would break the news to Sunderland that Nissan, along with an annual £350 million pumped into the north east economy, is leaving? The idea that we will exit without a trade deal is the same as it was last year - out of the question. The government's rhetoric is just that.Nissan Europe boss said today he assumes UK-EU “will find an agreement that meets the needs of the [Sunderland] factory”, but reiterates that without one eg with the introduction of 10% [WTO terms] tariffs, business model of Nissan Europe is “not viable”. https://t.co/8J7mVhOEO1— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) February 24, 2020
We have seen how fishermen would also be affected and industry is warning about delays, added costs and shortages next year.
But expect the tough talk to continue until the last minute. This will mean another year of uncertainty and worry for business. The Dutch government announced a few days ago that 140 companies had already made the move to Amsterdam creating 4200 jobs and injecting €375 million into their economy. Another 425 companies are in discussions. What will UK government rhetoric do to persuade them to stay? Not a lot I think.
And a company specialising in recruitment for the Fintech (Financial Technology) business warns that "the city of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, is poised to take over from London as Europe’s leading tech hub, and the main reason is Brexit".
The trickle of companies moving to the EU will turn into a flood this year if the government is not careful about the language it uses and the stance it adopts. If Brexit Johnson doesn't understand that now he very soon will.
