The UK mandate was published as expected yesterday. Read it HERE. The consensus seems to be that there are quite a lot of areas where reaching an agreement may not be too difficult but others where the two sides are very far apart. I am not an expert on trade negotiations (or anything else for that matter) so I won't give any comment except to say that on reading it you can't help but be struck by the contrast between the tough talk in the introduction with the rest of the document's 36 pages.
The big message winging its way around the world is that Britain is fearlessly prepared to walk away as early as June if it doesn't think good progress is being made (paragraph 9). Trust me, this will never happen - as became abundantly clear yesterday.
Unfortunately, the rest of the document is mainly a list of provisions we want that would replicate EU membership, for example:
- The Agreement should provide liberalised market access for trade in goods
- The Agreement should promote trade in goods by addressing regulatory barriers to trade between the UK and EU
- This annex should facilitate trade in chemical substances and related products and ensure high levels of protection for the environment and human and animal health
Theresa May in her deal prioritised trade, jobs and prosperity over ideology and sovereignty. Brexit Johnson, in the mandate, appeared to show that he is prepared to do the opposite, sacrifice and risk billions of pounds of trade and the jobs and livelihoods that it supports, both in this country and the EU. Don't worry he isn't.
How long ago it seems when David Davis talked about getting "the exact same benefits". All of the position papers published in the middle of 2017 set out the need for a deep and close relationship. May then tacitly acknowledged that wouldn't be the case but pursued as close a relationship as she thought possible through the Chequers agreement. Then we had Canada +++ now it's plain old vanilla Canada at best. At worst, no trade deal at all - Australia as we are told, although the Aussies don't actually have a deal.
Gist of EU source reaction to UK's position paper: No surprise. Overall, realistic as the negotiating basis for a no frills FTA. Some objections, but it puts the 2 sides closer to a landing zone than they may seem. But also regret at the distant nature of the relationship sought.— Nick Gutteridge (@nick_gutteridge) February 27, 2020
The EU would also do well to have watched Michael Gove deliver the statement about the future relationship in the House because this was the give away. As he spoke the pound did a choreographed slump showing exactly what the markets thought of it.
The killer question that exposed the government's strategy came afterwards:
Justin Madders (Ellesmere Port and Neston) (Lab)
It is estimated that if agreement is reached, there will be a need for about 50,000 new customs officers. Is it feasible to recruit and train that many people in less than six months, and who is going to foot the bill for it?
Michael Gove
Yes, it is, and the Government stand behind that.
Gove tried to convince Mr Madders and the rest of us that it is possible to advertise for, recruit and train 50,000 (fifty thousand!) new customs officers in the next ten months. The MP was so amazed by the answer he posted a clip of his question and Gove's response on Twitter:
My question to Michael Gove earlier about the need for 50,000 new customs officers to be recruited if we have a new trade deal with the EU by the end of the year. Apparently its all going to be fine! 🤔 pic.twitter.com/MMtLwKMlsQ— Justin Madders MP (@justinmadders) February 27, 2020
You can file this alongside Andrew Neil's comments about the government thinking cross border supply chains being old hat and 3D printing the future. Let us be frank, we are being gaslighted. There is no way that Johnson, Gove or anyone else in cabinet is going to risk leaving without a trade deal. It is IMPOSSIBLE. There are no rushed planning applications going in to build new customs posts, no contracts being awarded to extend ports, no concrete being poured. The government has not even formally instructed Irish facing ports to do anything at all. Where are these 50,000 customs officers going to work from?
No, it is quite impossible. Most importantly, the EU know it's impossible too. If they ever had any doubts, Gove dispelled them yesterday.
Peter Foster, in the twitter thread below, records the reaction of business to the mandate and he says it is universal frustration and anger. None of the major trade groups thinks the government is listening to them or acting with their interests in mind.
So. The UK's negotiating mandate is out, setting terms for future UK-EU partnership....livelihoods depend on all this, so here's the crazy part - the government admits it will do the economic assessments *after* the fact - see Para 12 1/Thread pic.twitter.com/kJEgc7nRKm— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) February 27, 2020
Anger at the government is growing all the time. Foster says, "Of late, I have spent a lot of time talking to business groups - across all the sectors - and the groups, all with different issues, share one thing in common. A quiet, seething, livid rage. They fizz with frustration. It is quite remarkable to behold".
Gove's slippery performance in the Commons was a mixture of bluster, semantics, ridiculous assertions and contradictions. On the NI protocol he told Paul Blomfield: "This Government are wholly committed to implementing the withdrawal agreement, to respecting and enacting the Northern Ireland protocol" and later in the same answer, "There will be no border down the Irish sea".
What businesses in Northern Ireland and the EU27 are to make of it all, I really don't know.
Gove again with "there will be no border in the Irish Sea" and "unfettered access to NI".— Dr Anna Jerzewska (@AnnaJerzewska) February 27, 2020
But If you don't have a border in the Irish Sea this means there is no border with the EU on that side.
/1
She makes the point that to be sovereign and run an independent trade policy we need a properly functioning border with the EU and she goes further, pointing out that Gove himself has already confirmed at a Border Delivery Group event that there will be friction, formalities and checks at the UK border with the EU and businesses should prepare for that.
What he seemed to be saying yesterday is that with Ireland that will not be the case. There will be no border and no friction. She is baffled as to what this means.
As we all are.
The Corona virus seems to be spiraling out of control and it looks like this may have a huge impact on the world economy with supply chains already starting to seize up. Stock markets are falling with the US index suffering its biggest one day fall in history yesterday.
Virus' tend to spread until the population gets a herd immunity naturally or through vaccination and I am not sure it's possible to lock whole cities and regions down as a means of halting the spread. It has the potential to dwarf the effects of Brexit.
And down around my area we have flooding from the river Aire affecting several nearby villages, which do not normally flood at all. Thankfully we haven't been impacted yet but we do sympathise with those who have. It must be heartbreaking to see your house under several feet of river water, knowing what is coming in the months ahead and the problems later in getting any insurance. Something needs doing to ensure even houses which flood frequently can get reasonably priced insurance or government help with moving to a more sustainable location. It can't simply carry on getting worse each year.
At the moment it's all very worrying.
At the moment it's all very worrying.
