Thursday 26 March 2020

Coronavirus: the numbers game

As of ten o'clock last night the government website supposedly showing the number of confirmed covid-19 cases was stuck on Tuesday morning's totals of 8,077 with 422 deaths. The figures should be updated daily but apparently not.  I suspected a shock might be coming, but no.  At about 10:15 pm they were published, the number of confirmed cases went up to 9529 (+1452) while the number of deaths went up to 463. The daily mortality increase at 41 was less than half that of the previous day so good news apparently.  All the more puzzling why they took so long to come out.

The cynical among us might think the figures are being taken for a massage before we get to see them.

Public Health England have launched a website breaking the figures down into regions. Oddly, this is now showing Wednesday morning's total of 9,529 cases, but Tuesday morning's deaths at 422 [now corrected]. The regional figures for deaths have not changed. It all seems very flaky to me.

The number of tests carried out at 97,012 only increased by about 6,400 (I believe, I didn't note Tuesday's total). Even before the figures came out, Laura Kuenssberg was prompted to ask at yesterday's press conference, the question that many others have been asking. Namely, why the PM keeps telling us the number of tests is being 'ramped up' when the daily total barely changes. Ten days ago he was saying it would soon be 10,000 per day and this was just the start, they were after 25,000 and even 250,000 a day, a figure that really stretches credulity beyond the limit.

Needless to say we got no answer or dates.

Johnson looked even more uncomfortable than usual at PMQs and during his press conference later, flanked by the CMO and Chief Scientific Adviser. He is full of what John Crace calls pifflepafflewifflewaffle - overlong, repetitive, evasive answers - used as a shield to beat away difficult questions.  His talk of "wrapping an arm around the workers" might have come from Lenin's Bolsheviks circa 1920 and was delivered with about as much sincerity.

I used to think Tony Blair was an actor who did prime minister impressions. Johnson is cast from the same mould but he looks like an actor who has lost all confidence and doesn't believe the words he is reading out anymore. He suspects the audience is beginning to see through the elaborate caricature he has constructed. During press conferences he will be hearing his own increasingly hollow words like an out of body experience.

We know he can't be bothered to read briefing papers longer than two sides of A4 which comes across when you realise that from skim reading these short notes, he - or Cummings, I'm not sure which - then come up with three word slogans. The latest offerings are‘‘Stay at home", "Protect the NHS" and "Help save lives."  Johnson and his chief adviser are destined to become the Lennon & McCartney of three word slogan world. This is how they 'govern'. If a policy can't be summarised in three words it's dumped.

Crace notes that "whatever it takes" - given a trial run by Sunak a few days ago - didn't work too well since NHS front line staff are complaining daily about the lack of effective PPE and testing.  It should have been "whatever it takes provided it's not too expensive".

The BBC report that Dyson have been awarded a contract to manufacture 10,000 ventilators
The BBC provide a link to what they say is a 'design' but the link doesn't seem to work. I am not sure I would want to have a ventilator used on me that has been cobbled together by Dyson in a couple of weeks from a 'design' provided by the government. What does Dyson know about medical ventilators? There is also the question of approval. Since the European Medicines Agency left who is going to approve them?

On Newsnight, Nadhim Zahawi was wheeled out to explain the ventilator numbers. Matt Hancock had said we had 12,000 units while the NHS confirmed the real number was actually 8,000. Zahawi was red faced and sweating as he tried to bluff his way out of that (see it HERE about 20m, 11secs in). It was a massive car crash with a single political fatality - the wreckage of Zahawi's career will take a few days to be recovered and put on the scrap heap.

He indicated the Dyson ventilators will be available in April but then seemed to backpedal furiously. I doubt they will be approved by April let alone manufactured or tested. As a yardstick, New York state with a population about a third of the UK, says it needs an extra 30,000 ventilators.

Industry

Industry is beginning to raise its voice on the vexed question of an extension to the transition period with the Freight Transport Association calling for Brexit to be delayed:-

"This is not about the relative merits of Brexit, or any trading arrangements which our industry will need to adopt,” explains Elizabeth de Jong, Policy Director at FTA.  “This is purely and simply so the businesses tasked with keeping the UK’s supply chain intact can concentrate on the serious issues which the COVID-19 pandemic is placing on the industry.

"Logistics is facing unprecedented challenges, both in terms of keeping the UK economy supplied with all the goods it needs to function, as well as coping with the increased disruption to staffing levels caused by sickness and self-isolation and concerns about the viability of their businesses. Our first priority is always to deliver for our customers, and there is simply not enough capacity available to plan the major structural changes needed to implement a successful departure from the EU, as well as the myriad of other planned legislation changes on the horizon, as well as dealing with unprecedented pressures caused by COVID-19."

The British International Freight Association (BIFA) say that refusing to ask for an extension amid the coronavirus crisis would be "irresponsible".

This doesn't necessarily mean Johnson will ask for one. We all know that nobody does irresponsible quite like the prime minister. He has made a religion out of it in a life-time packed with reckless and foolhardy incidents from which he has almost always emerged Scot free. However, I suspect he will be forced to ask for an extension and the longer he delays making a decision the more British business will lose what little trust they had in him to look after their interests.

 Think tanks

Right wing think tanks like those at 55 Tufton Street have a lot to answer for. They, and others like Open Europe - now folded and merged with Policy Exchange, did much to bring about Brexit. They shamelessly produced nonsense statistics and reports which looked impressive for a few hours and captured the headlines but soon collapsed under scrutiny.

Now we learn another one is being launched - the Centre for Brexit Policy (CBP) with a list of nutjobs to make any secure institution jealous. Owen Paterson, John Longworth, Sammy Wilson, Graham Stringer, Ruth Lea are all on board. Their website says CBP has three core objectives:

  • Identify the benefits and opportunities of Brexit across the full spectrum of economic, trade, social, foreign, defence and security policy areas and propose new policies for the government’s agenda
  • Continue to make the intellectual, evidence-based case for a ‘real’ Brexit and provide the government with clear and constructive advice on how to deal with ongoing negotiation and implementation issues.  A ‘real’ Brexit, means regaining full control over our laws, borders, seas, trade, and courts, regardless of the route taken to achieve these.
  • Check any attempts to dilute a real Brexit, as well as serving as a catalyst and rallying point for positive news stories that, over time, will be able to persuade and demonstrate the many substantial advantages of Brexit

What I would like to know is who funds these think tanks?  You can be sure they won't be short of money and the newspapers will soon be full of headline grabbing 'evidence-based' reports from CBP. I don't know why we worry about upsetting the leave voters. These dangerous people will never, ever be satisfied until they have ruined this country.
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