Friday 13 March 2020

Covid-19: is the government's approach a big gamble?

The Covid-19 outbreak is dominating the news channels almost to the exclusion of all else and we are still a couple of months from the expected peak. Things are going to get much worse before they get better.  The next scheduled encounter in the EU-UK trade talks in London has been postponed although Sky News report it as the 'face to face' meeting which I suppose leaves open the possibility that some sort of video conference call could take place. This surely is delaying the inevitable. The transition period will obviously have to be extended, and by a good bit.

The December 31st date was never anything other than a political ploy anyway and for Brexit Johnson and Gove to insist it must be met regardless of the entire nation being locked down and overwhelmed by a pandemic will shortly look ridiculous.

Yesterday's press conference has highlighted the disparity between the UK's unique approach to containing and delaying the spread of the virus to that of all other affected countries. We alone are now delaying the start of 'social distancing' - closing schools and stopping sports events and so on - unlike other European nations, now including Ireland.  Brexit Johnson suggested he is following expert advice, a first for this administration. Lewis Goodall tweeted a graphic that he used on Newsnight later:
I have no idea if we are right or wrong. Time will tell and later this year we may be able to compare our infection curve with that of all the other countries. We may be vindicated. Our experts might have done better modelling but it does seem to be a big gamble. 

How much of a gamble can be seen in the tweet someone posted on Twitter yesterday.  An academic paper from 2007 carried out similar modelling using actual figures from the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic in the USA. Two cities with two different approaches were compared, Philadelphia and St Louis.
Philadelphia did what we are now doing. A long period of delay between the first case appearing and the start of social distancing. Note the huge peak.  St Louis enacted social distancing just two days after the first case and they had a much flatter curve.  The data was published in a highly respected journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2007. It is not guesswork or speculation.

Let us hope we're right.  If not, this government will be gone by the end of the year.

I am afraid the UK and USA are not well endowed with their chosen political leaders as this moment of crisis threatens to engulf us. Trump first played down the pandemic before taking the drastic step of banning all flights from Europe, except those from the UK and Ireland. I note this morning the wife of the Canadian prime minister has now tested positive after returning from a trip to London.  We'll see how long Trump treats us as a special case.

The president is said to be seething in private that Covid-19 is some sort of plot to thwart his chances of a second term. Never mind the thousands who might die, the famously narcisisstic Trump can only see his own reflection in the mirror, nobody else matters.

We are no better in Britain. If Brexit Johnson was given a choice between saving his premiership and wasting half the nation there wouldn't be a moment's hesitation.  They are men cast in the same mould and not that different in temperament to Assad in Syria - albeit thankfully without the mechanisms a police state provides.

But, to return to Brexit for a moment.  I assume this will all be put on the back burner very soon. It is inconceivable to me that the government will be able to carry on as if nothing has happened. Trade talks with the Americans are supposed to start at the end of this month. I think they will be postponed and Brexit delayed by at least six months if not longer.

On the Irish border protocol, Sammy Wilson, the DUP MP and mad keen Brexiteer (at least he was) has an op ed in the Belfast Newsletter where he describes the NI protocol as 'the worst of all worlds' - hardly a ringing endorsement of the existing WA. He is urging Brexit Johnson not to implement it until the trade deal is struck and agreed.

The problem for Wilson and the PM is tthe WA is an international treaty which the EU expect us to implement as evidence of good faith. Brussels has already warned that any backsliding will cast doubt on whether any trade deal can ever be agreed.  Implementing the WA is therefore a prerequisite of the talks continuing.  This is also another good reason the transition period will have to be extended.

On this score, Barnier must be fuming. Only a few days ago he had an assurance from UK chief negotiator David Frost, that we will abide by the WA in full. Michael Gove, in front of the parliamentary Future Relationship Committee, then refused to confirm there will be any checks on goods crossing the Irish sea from GB to NI. This is not the first time where we have appeared to resile from solemn commitments after giving assurances that we wouldn't.

Gove's refusal to concede there will be checks came after Hilary Benn pointed out specific sections of the government's own impact assessment which says import and entry summary declaration would be required (see paragraph 241).

This kind of wriggling when faced with the reality of what has been agreed is hardly a good foundation to build trust.

Gove seems to think the Joint Committee, which he will co-chair, will somehow be renegotiating the NI protocol. Needless to say the EU don't see it that way.
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