His Twitter thread starts here:
An industry insider tells me a supermarket has calculated the cost of putting a single 'mixed' container (meat, fish, dairy) goods from GB to NI at £6,000 - or "half total value of consignment". This is a serious #Brexit issue. 1/Threadhttps://t.co/UGQEtQiOcS— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) March 3, 2020
Foster talks about 'containers' but I think he means curtain sided trailers, or Euroliners; containers aren't the normal way you would transport goods between GB-NI which uses a Ro-Ro service I believe. Mixed loads were always going to be the most problematic and expensive because each individual consignment has to carry its own paperwork, declarations, certificates, invoices, etc.
The importance of this can't be overstated, firstly for its impact on NI but also because it will apply at every UK-EU border crossing point, including the Dover-Calais route.
I assume this will have several effects. First, less groupage and more single product consignments, reducing choice and increasing distribution costs. Second, businesses in GB will drop the NI market simply because they won't be able to compete with sources in Ireland who will be able to serve the NI market without friction. Thirdly, prices will rise.
Lidl, Aldi and Tesco have existing operations in Ireland and could serve NI from the south. Sainsbury's and Asda don't and will need to find new suppliers or bear the extra cost. Manufacturers and wholesalers in GB will lose out whatever happens.
All of this is caused by Johnson's crazy insistence on going for a Canada minus deal or Australia type no-deal.
More significantly, it seems to finally be dawning on the government just what a problem all this will be. The supermarkets had a meeting scheduled this week with DEFRA, lifting travel bans caused by Corvid-19 to arrange it, only to have the meeting cancelled due to insufficient "political" clarity about just how the NI protocol will be implemented, with mutterings about the need "to see what comes out of the Brussels talks".
Foster links to tweets from the BBC's Belfast based, NI economics and business editor, J P Campbell, who attended a meeting of the Stormont Assembly yesterday where the Agriculture minister, Edwin Poot, told MLAs that the protocol was 'hugely damaging', needs to change and has consequences for every business and consumer in NI. Another DUP MLA, Paul Givan, described the protocol as 'a punishment beating' for those who supported Brexit.
If Mr Givan is right, the whole idea of the kind of Brexit being pursued by this government will be a 'punishment beating' for us all, both those who supported Brexit and those who opposed it.
From Brussels, where he is Europe editor, Foster claims there is more rising anger about the NI protocol and Johnson's approach to it, than the fishing issue. They have been seeking urgent private assurances from Downing Street but didn't get any comfort.
The EU want Gove to 'start to engage' with his counterpart to set up the Joint Committee (and six sub-committees) which will agree the details and exemptions for goods crossing the GB-NI border and won't be happy until they see signs that we are at least preparing infrastructure for customs posts.
And on this subject, an article in iNews by a Richard Vaughan echoes what I was saying a few days ago. The government will only show it's serious about walking away without a deal when planning applications start to go in for border posts in Dover and elsewhere:
As industry leaders in the food and drink sectors have told me, we will know if the Government means what it says if planning applications start going in to build the extra infrastructure needed to carry out checks on goods at the border.
“That will be a concrete sign that the Government really means business if we see it building border posts in Dover, which will need planning permission or possibly compulsory purchase orders,” one industry head said.
Anyone familiar with the planning system in this country will know to get an application determined in under six months is good going, even for a simple, straightforward project. For more complicated ones, it's usually much longer and if CPOs are involved - well, it's anybody's guess. The legal issues could take years to settle. The fact that none of this has been done - or even started - is a clear sign that it is in fact all bluff.
Finally, I note this item on the CityAM website about the Vauxhall plant in Ellesmere Port. The new owner, PSA (Peugeot-Citroen), has deferred a decision on the plant's future "until we have a clear understanding of the outcome of discussions between the British government and the European Union". This is a another ratcheting up of the pressure on Brexit Johnson, Gove and Frost. A clever strategy I think.
All the blame will go onto the government who will try to shift it onto the EU. But the car maker will escape all responsibility.
As industry leaders in the food and drink sectors have told me, we will know if the Government means what it says if planning applications start going in to build the extra infrastructure needed to carry out checks on goods at the border.
“That will be a concrete sign that the Government really means business if we see it building border posts in Dover, which will need planning permission or possibly compulsory purchase orders,” one industry head said.
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| Dover port |
Anyone familiar with the planning system in this country will know to get an application determined in under six months is good going, even for a simple, straightforward project. For more complicated ones, it's usually much longer and if CPOs are involved - well, it's anybody's guess. The legal issues could take years to settle. The fact that none of this has been done - or even started - is a clear sign that it is in fact all bluff.
Finally, I note this item on the CityAM website about the Vauxhall plant in Ellesmere Port. The new owner, PSA (Peugeot-Citroen), has deferred a decision on the plant's future "until we have a clear understanding of the outcome of discussions between the British government and the European Union". This is a another ratcheting up of the pressure on Brexit Johnson, Gove and Frost. A clever strategy I think.
All the blame will go onto the government who will try to shift it onto the EU. But the car maker will escape all responsibility.
