Wednesday 15 April 2020

A day of reckoning is coming

The coronavirus statistics for deaths in England and Wales were released by the ONS yesterday giving accumulated figures up to 3 April which were registered by 11 April. As last week, it also provides a comparison for the numbers given out daily for deaths in NHS hospitals and actual total deaths including in care homes, hospices and the community. These are all from death certificates which mention Covid-19 as either the cause of death or a contributory factor.

 The ONS tweeted:
The NHS reported 4,093 by 3 April but waiting until 11 April and looking at all Covid-19 related deaths registered up to that date and we see the actual total was 6,235.  Quite a difference but understandable because of the delays in registration, although why we can't speed up the process is hard to see.

What is less understandable is the government's insistence that it is providing like-for-like comparisons with other countries. A website called hsk.co.uk - For Healthcare Leaders - doesn't hold back, accusing the government of misleading the public.

"The global death comparison chart used in the televised briefing on Monday 13 April showed covid-19 fatalities in France were just above 14,000, as compared to the UK total of 11,329 confirmed hospitalised deaths. Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said the chart only 'looks at deaths in hospital'. 

 "But, according to Public Health France, the figure for France included deaths from outside hospitals, such as in care and nursing homes. In fact, on 13 April, there had been a total of 9,588 reported deaths of covid-19 patients in French hospitals, from the total of 14,967 deaths in all settings.

 "It means the UK is in fact above France’s trajectory of reported covid-19 deaths, along with that of countries such as China, Germany and South Korea — even though the UK is further behind France in development of the outbreak (with fewer days passed since 50 cumulative deaths were reported)."

deaths april 13
The reporter has helpfully placed an orange cross where France should be in relation to the UK and as you can see we are much higher.  I am sorry to say it does appear that the Chief Scientific Adviser is misleading us, certainly on the French figures.  As far as the Spanish and Italian ones are concerned we don't know - yet.

What is interesting is that in both France and the UK the % of deaths in care homes is roughly the same. In the UK it's 52% (6,235-4,093) and in France 56% (14,967-9,588). 

The economy

I didn't see the press conference yesterday although I know Rishi Sunak gave it and in questions afterwards confirmed once again the UK did not intend to delay the end of the transition period. He and the government are now playing a dangerous game of bluff with Brussels. Thinking we are going to force the hand of the EU by refusing to ask for an extension is going to make Sunak, Johnson, Gove and the rest of the cabinet look utterly stupid in a few weeks. More on this below:

If the ONS are producing embarrassing statistics on the coronavirus pandemic, the OBR are doing the same on the economy. They published their "scenario" for the economy after the crisis (Covid-19 that is) and the numbers really are "beyond imagination" as Faisal Islam claimed a few days ago.

The economy is expected to shrink by 35% in Q2 (April to June) but recover relatively quickly in Q3 to end 2020 with an economy just 13% smaller over the year. Note this would be our worst performance in over a century which included two world wars and is about three times as bad as the 2008-09 financial crash which saw a 4.2% drop.  These are truly stupendous numbers.

Unemployment is expected to rise by over two million.

Public sector net borrowing could be £273 billion or 14% of GDP. It makes Alistair Darling's efforts in 2009-10 look almost parsimonious at a mere £175 bullion.

Even this is based on the notion that the restrictions will only be in place for three months and then be lifted gradually over the next three with the economy bouncing back close to normal.  I think this is highly unlikely.  The British economy is going to be crippled by coronavirus for a long time and the idea of going ahead with Brexit is just nonsense.

Will Hutton accuses Sunak of "betraying his office and the economy".  Which is why he won't do it.

Who is going to ask for the extension?

There will be an extension. Of that there is not the slightest doubt. The only question is which side will ask for it, when and how long will it be?  Another clue to that comes in a Twitter thread by Tony Connelly of the Irish broadcaster RTE. yesterday:
In tweet 9 he says this:

"The WA says any extension to the transition must be agreed by both sides through the Joint Committee. But it is silent on who has to mention it first. Politically, the EU would be loathe to request the UK to seek an extension, so the belief is it's up to Michael Gove"

The EU are not about to raise the question of an extension and seem prepared to force Michael Gove to do the asking.  We are looking at a serious case of brinkmanship on trade while a pandemic rages around us. It is totally insane. We know we will need to ask at some point - my guess is in the mddle of June.

And I think I may have discovered the reason the government is refusing to share our version of the legal texts with member states (see Connelly's tweet No 8 in the thread above) which is causing frustration as well as slowing things up.

When Gove appeared before Hilary Benn's Future Relationship committee on 11 March he was questioned about when the texts would be available to parliament with Benn expressly saying it would be unacceptable for European parliamentarians to see the text when British MPs could not. 

I suspect it is all in aid of keeping parliament in the dark for as long as possible.

Gove's appearance can be seen HERE.  The first few minutes show the total incoherence of the government's many positions on Brexit and the sheer slipperiness of Gove. I think he knows a day of reckoning is coming soon.
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