Sunday 5 April 2020

Appeasement: is there a modern comparison between Johnson and Chamberlain?

Johnson's fascination with Winston Churchill is well known. He wrote a book about the great man in 2014: The Churchill factor which many take to be an over flattering comparison between himself and Britain's war time leader. There is a contemporary review of the book by John Kampfner in The Guardian HERE if you're interested.  I begin with this because of an article by a Senior Research Fellow at The Global Policy Institute, Brunel Business School, Dr Andrew Black, which touches on the subject of appeasement - not of Hitler but Brexiteers.

Black rather turns the tables on Johnson although he isn't actually mentioned by name in the piece but it's clear who he has in mind. The comparison made is between Chamberlain and perhaps both Cameron and Johnson. In many ways it's far more compelling than to Churchill.

Take this passage:

"Consider, as an example, a Conservative led coalition government, with both Liberal and some Labour support, whose leader was feted for having “avoided” a world war in 1938, by arriving back at Heston Airport, clutching a piece of paper, which was declared as offering “peace in our time”. On the journey back to Number 10 Downing Street, supporters were cheering, clapping, throwing flowers, and behaving in an untypically exuberant fashion. At that point in his career, Neville Chamberlain was arguably at the peak of his “power”. His policy of appeasement, currying favour with dictators, as a means of preventing, and if possible, avoiding a new European, and therefore probably a new world war, was considered by the press, most of his party, all of his government as being a huge success. Praise came from many directions, including the Royal Family. What more could he have wanted?"

Last December, with an impressive election win and an 80+ seat majority under his belt, Johnson was portrayed as the master of all he surveyed. He had secured a deal with the EU, vanquished the remainer toadies and made the Tory party a personal vehicle for his final assault on the summit of British politics.  In other words he was not that different to Chamberlain in 1938. He had the support of a great section of the party and press and a mandate to carry Brexit through.  What could possibly go wrong?

Well, in Chamberlain's case, almost everything.

"Just over one year later, in September 1939, Britain and France were at war with Germany. The entire appeasement policy was destroyed and lay in shreds. It was revealed as being an exercise in willful deception, both by the deceivers, and the deceived."

Johnson is beginning to look not that different to Chamberlain. Covid-19 was certainly a massive unforeseen crisis but Brexit continues to rumble away in the background, surely another exercise in willful deception and a conspiracy between deceivers and deceived.  

Black's telling argument is this paragraph:

"The Conservatives, once freed from the constraints of coalition with the LibDems in 2015, conceded point after point to English nationalism, in order to avoid being outflanked by Brexiteer opinion, led by the Farage UKIP party – who only won a single seat in a general election. The Tories became the English nationalist party. Similarly, in the 1930s the Conservative party became convinced of the need to support pacifism and appeasement while uncritically accepting assurances from fascist governments, themselves intent on destroying democracy"

So, remember, a lot can change in a year.

There has been an awful lot of appeasement of Brexiteers who can be compared to sabre rattling nationalists and aggressive warmongers. Johnson has been encouraging and appeasing the far right wing of the Tory party for a long time just as a Chamberlain appeased Hitler and the left in the late 1930s.

Black continues:

"So continuing with the historical analogy, is our current situation something close to 1938? The 2019 election being the peak of Tory performance, before reality finally sets in? If so, would we then have to endure a year or more of bumbling incompetence, before the current government ends up brought down by its own internal contradictions? Or are we rather more urgently in a situation closer to 1939/40? As has been pointed out by the opposition, the issue of Brexit has not been “done” at all. On the contrary, the issues around Brexit are now just beginning. Real choices are being made, and there are powerful interests in this country, largely outside of parliament it has to be said, who are unconvinced about the benefits of withdrawal from the EU."

We are not in a war but this time it will be an opportunity for Europe to save Britain. It's an interesting piece and I urge you to read it.  Once again, it's HERE.


Kier Starmer won a handsome victory yesterday, beating RLB easily with 56% of the vote compared to her 27%.  Let's hope he can start to rebuild the party as a serious opposition. His win wasn't universally welcomed with some party members cutting up their membership cards.

A tweet from the former Brexit MEP Martin Daubney showed how they intend to attack Starmer:
Amazing.  The Old Etonian Johnson is seen as a horny handed son of toil while the council-house born and grammar school educated Starmer is too "posh" to win back Labour heartlands. He must not fail and I don't think he will.

The question of extending the transition period has already been decided with Bloomberg claiming, "It’s now only a question of how Johnson will sell a delay to the British public, rather than whether or not one will happen."

And MI6 Rogue, the Twitter account seemingly from deep inside government says the same:
Whoever is running the account needs to be careful. It has been strangely accurate in its forecasting despite having some difficulty in both spelling and grammar. Originally, I though it might be a spoof but it's probably more a reflection on the quality of staff being recruited. The person behind the tweets might want to be careful, his or her spelling mistakes are going to give them away eventually.

But an announcement cannot be far away.
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