We are reaching the stage in the Covid-19 pandemic where people are starting to compare our performance with that of other countries. A government scientific adviser, Sir Jeremy Farrar, says it's likely we will end with the highest death toll in Europe which will not be a comfortable place for the government to be. It's not as if we were the first to be hit. On March 29th The Daily Telegraph asked: As Italy's coronavirus deaths surge beyond 9,000, what did it get wrong and what can other countries learn?
If we do indeed end up with the highest number of deaths in Europe, the answer will be, apparently nothing or very little.
The two nations we are being compared with are Ireland and Germany. The number of deaths per 100,000 population in Britain (14.8) is over twice that of Ireland (6.5) and nearly four times that of Germany (4.11). This despite the outbreaks starting at more or less the same time.
Ireland's figure come from a Twitter thread (below) and Germany's is mine using a total number of deaths as 3,015 and a population of 83 million.
Buzzfeed compare the timelines of the UK and Germany beginning with the first case (27 January for Germany and 31 January for the UK). So, Germany started a few days ahead yet still managed to have only a quarter of the number of deaths per head of population. They were consistently quicker than we were in making crucial decisions.
On 28 February Germany produced guidelines for travellers from major hot spots to report their health status and announced plans to centralise procurement and the stockpiling of essential equipment. The health minister revealed plans to ramp up testing. An international travel trade show scheduled for the following month in Berlin was cancelled. On 11 March social distancing began.
In Britain, Johnson spent over a week in February relaxing on holiday at Chevening and a COBRA meeting wasn't held until 2 March. The Cheltenham festival with 250,000 visitors was allowed to go ahead on 13 March.
I see Germany is now said to have more testing capacity because they were already an international leader and this may be true, but we are also supposed to be a leader in biotechnology too. In any case that doesn't explain Ireland.
A long Twitter thread by Elaine Doyle, a historian and PhD, sets out the Irish response:
Ireland is very similar to the UK as Ms Doyle asks:I don't understand the British media. I really, really don't.— Elaine Doyle (@laineydoyle) April 12, 2020
Basic things: Ireland and the UK started this pandemic with roughly the same number of ICU beds (6.5 per 100,000 for Ireland, 6.6 per 100,000 in the UK).
If anything, the UK was slightly better off. pic.twitter.com/owhHMUZccU
"So you have two English-speaking countries, with close cultural and historical associations, both with underfunded health systems, & comparable levels of ICU beds (almost half the EU average) going into the pandemic.
"But England has more than 2.5 times the deaths? Why?
She points to actions taken promptly in Ireland while we seemed paralyzed by indecision. And instead of the Cheltenham festival she gives the example of a Stereophonics concert held in Cardiff on 14 March at the Motorpoint Arena. The video shows thousand packed together like sardines.
As Elaine Doyle says, exponential curves rise very quickly and a few days make all the difference.
We had advanced warning from China. Xi Jin Ping spoke to Johnson on 18 February about the virus. We then watched a pre-run of how the pandemic would spread as Italy struggled to cope and despite all this we were still behind the curve on social distancing and acquiring the right level of equipment and supplies. Not only did we have all these advantages it now seems more than likely we will actually do worse than Italy.
It's also instructive to note The Telegraph at the end of March talking about the death toll in Italy hitting 9,000. When our death toll did the same here at the weekend all the coverage was about Johnson coming out of hospital. But that's par for the course isn't it?
An article in The Mail on Sunday yesterday by Tom Bower about Johnson begins by saying that he (Johnson) believes it is churlish of us not to regard him as an exception and speaks of his 'titanic self belief' first noticed by his teachers at Eton.
This is the problem.
Johnson. like Trump, and all those with 'titanic self-belief' always thinks their instincts are right and stick by them until they are shown to be wrong and very often well beyond that point. Some are never convinced they were wrong about anything. I suspect Johnson is one of those.
Now is not the time for a detailed examination of what went wrong but there will have to be a public inquiry some time in the future and serious questions will need to be asked.
