The Office for National Statistics (ONS) are now involved in producing the COVID-19 death statistics which now come from different data sources and are potentially more reliable and more accurate. This isn't to suggest anyone has been manipulating the numbers. I saw a Twitter thread in the last few days setting out the huge problems Spain had in compiling precise statistics from different hospitals in different regions and so on. The virus has overwhelmed health providers across the world and I suppose we shouldn't be surprised if it takes a bit of time to collect data together in a consistent way.
Anyway we now have better figures up to 27th March which includes deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the certificate and registered by 1 April. We can see there is a big difference between what the government release each day and reality.
According to the government website tracking the outbreak on 27th March the number of deaths in England was 926. The actual figure calculated by the ONS is 1568, a 70% increase. The figures have been used to produce this graph, which isn't very clear anyway and again, only refers to England:
Figure 1: The cumulative number of deaths involving COVID-19 in England using different data sources, up to 27 March 2020
The spreadsheet you can download (HERE) is clearer. Essentially there are three sets of numbers that are important, as follows and all referring to Covid-19 deaths which occurred prior to March 27th:
- The deaths published on the GOV.UK website: COVID-19: track coronavirus cases 27/3/20
- The deaths actually registered by the same date
- The deaths registered five days later but which occurred before March 27th
In the case of that particular date (27th March) 1= 926, 2= 620 and 3= 1568. These are the accumulated totals for England and even these are still labelled provisional.
What it tells us is that there is a variable delay in filling in the appropriate death certificates which means an inherent under reporting. This is not deliberate but rather a feature of the system we use to register deaths in this country. The time lag, which normally doesn't matter, has serious implications when trying to plot the trajectory of a pandemic on a daily basis.
You can see the GOV.UK regional breakdown HERE. This gives the current total deaths (as of 5:00 pm Monday) for the four home nations from Covid-19 as follows:
England 4897
Scotland 220
Wales 193
Northern Ireland 63
The total is 5373, but remember firstly that these don't include the 786 people who were registered as dying yesterday (the true total is 6159) and in any case this is from the column that erroneously gave us 926 deaths on March 27th instead of 1568 and is clearly an under reporting of the true picture. If the ONS numbers continue to be at +70% higher, the actual number of deaths up to Monday will be well over 10,000.
The Chinese took another big step yesterday by reopening roads to Wuhan. Wuhan has been isolated in a way that no other city in the world could contemplate. China implemented social distancing far more brutally than anywhere else and no doubt scientists across the world will be watching to see what happens. Almost certainly there will be a second wave of coronavirus and other, perhaps less draconian, social distancing measures may have to be introduced and kept in place for an extended period while a vaccine is developed and trialed.
The government is still insisting it will stick to the December 31st date to end the transition period in claims that are increasingly reminiscent of the black knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail or captain Smith on the Titanic getting out a fibreglass kit and an aerosol can of paint to repair the damage. It is starting to look pathetic and will sooner or later provide us with the mother of all U turns.
Even our chief negotiator, David Frost, is quoted by the BBC saying trade talks are continuing with the EU “in these difficult times”. He can say that again. Tis' but a scratch, eh?
The only hint that some sort of concession is on the way is this:
"Earlier, Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove wrote to the Commons Select Committee on the future relationship with the EU, saying the structure of negotiations was 'ikely to change to reflect the current situation' and they were 'exploring flexibility'.
"He added: 'We remain in contact with the European Commission to explore alternative ways to continue discussions, and will be guided by scientific advice.'
When Michael Gove relies on experts you know you're in trouble.
