The remorseless increase in Covid-19 cases took a sharp upward turn yesterday with figures beginning to look like those from Italy and Spain. A total of 563 people died in the 24 hours to 5 pm on Tuesday with 4,274 new cases up to 9 am on Wednesday. These are horrific numbers and we may not yet be at the peak. A frontline doctor tweeted that he had certified more deaths in a single shift yesterday than ever before and gave a glimpse into the human side of his work.
It was small things he said: a bookmark in the middle of an unfinished book, a still ticking watch and an unread text message from a hopeful family. Each death is a tragedy anyway, but to die alone and fearful in an overstretched ward full of strangers must be truly awful.
Italy suffered 727 deaths on Tuesday, the difference is that they may just be starting to look at falling numbers while ours are still rising.
The impact of the pandemic on the UK economy will be massive. As OECD secretary general Angel Gurría recently told the BBC, the pandemic has already had a bigger impact than the 2008-09 financial crash and we have only just started.
The House of Commons Library published a briefing note on Tuesday as if laying the ground for a future shock. Retail footfall is down by over 80% compared with a year ago. Be the Business, an organisation that supports businesses to raise productivity, reported "that 7% of small businesses had stopped trading permanently, while a further 12% said they would likely close within a month. 8% have made redundancies, with a 15% planning to in the next month. The survey was conducted 20-24 March."
"The Department for Work and Pensions reported that there were 477,000 new claims (applications) for Universal Credit in the previous nine days and 105,000 on 24 March alone. This compares with an average of 55,000 per week over the course of 2019."
"A survey, conducted 20-26 March, of ‘business leaders’ by the Institute of Directors, reported 39% thought coronavirus posed a severe threat to their organisation. 40% had contacted their bank about an emergency loan."
The BBC were reporting a million new UC claims in the past two weeks. All of which means a dramatic reversal in the flow of money. Over the coming weeks and months government spending will rise as steeply as its income falls. Borrowing will rocket to levels never seen in peacetime.
The briefing paper explains that economic data on the crisis will not be published until late April at the earliest. When it is prepare for a major shock.
The impact of the pandemic on the UK economy will be massive. As OECD secretary general Angel Gurría recently told the BBC, the pandemic has already had a bigger impact than the 2008-09 financial crash and we have only just started.
The House of Commons Library published a briefing note on Tuesday as if laying the ground for a future shock. Retail footfall is down by over 80% compared with a year ago. Be the Business, an organisation that supports businesses to raise productivity, reported "that 7% of small businesses had stopped trading permanently, while a further 12% said they would likely close within a month. 8% have made redundancies, with a 15% planning to in the next month. The survey was conducted 20-24 March."
"The Department for Work and Pensions reported that there were 477,000 new claims (applications) for Universal Credit in the previous nine days and 105,000 on 24 March alone. This compares with an average of 55,000 per week over the course of 2019."
"A survey, conducted 20-26 March, of ‘business leaders’ by the Institute of Directors, reported 39% thought coronavirus posed a severe threat to their organisation. 40% had contacted their bank about an emergency loan."
The BBC were reporting a million new UC claims in the past two weeks. All of which means a dramatic reversal in the flow of money. Over the coming weeks and months government spending will rise as steeply as its income falls. Borrowing will rocket to levels never seen in peacetime.
The briefing paper explains that economic data on the crisis will not be published until late April at the earliest. When it is prepare for a major shock.
Brexit
It seems almost heartless to talk about Brexit while the Covid-19 pandemic rages on but RTE's Tony Connelly had a long Twitter thread yesterday which I thought was important. The UK government has declined a request by the EU to have an office in Belfast to monitor implementation of the NI protocol.
The British government is resisting a request by the EU to maintain a physical presence in Northern Ireland, following the closure of the European Commission’s office in Belfast at the end of January, @rtenews understands.— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) April 1, 2020
He describes it as a "flashpoint" between the two sides with the UK regarding the request as contrary to the letter of the Withdrawal Agreement and "tanatmount to an infringement of sovereignty."
The protocol gives EU officials "the right to be present during any activities” relating to the operation of checks and controls but in a move that begins to look petty, spiteful and evidently in bad faith, the permanent secretary at the FCO delivered a flat refusal - presumably at the direction of Raab and Johnson - to allow the EU to rent some premises.
The office would be used to house EU customs and veterinary staff but we seem to regard it as a Trojan horse. The EU see it as so important they have submitted a follow up letter asking the British government to reconsider. Connelly says the two sides are very far apart on this point.
The border issue is highly sensitive but RTE understand that neither the DUP or Sinn Fein have a position on the matter so it doesn't seem reasonable to deny the EU customs personnel an office in Belfast. Again, it looks like ideology trumps everything.
According to a later tweet from Connelly the issue is under consideration again in London, the government issuing a statement:
“We received an initial request from the EU and responded to decline the proposal in February. We have since received a follow up letter to which we will respond in due course."
When Johnson finally concedes that extending the transition period is unavoidable he is going to face absolute ridicule. His response to coronavirus has been slow and tardy already as if he is unwilling to face facts until they overwhelm him. The same is going to be true of extending the transition period. He doesn't look like a leader because he doesn't see or acknowledge the inevtable until well after everybody else.
A poll by Best for Britain shows almost two thirds of the people would like to see Brexit delayed until Covid-19 is brought under control. These is no political downside to coming out immediately and admitting an extension is now essential.
But as we know Johnson cannot lead because he's not a leader is he?
Finally, a tweet from the BBC's Lewis Goodall about testing:
Why indeed?Tonight the PM said testing is the thing which will "unlock the Coronavirus puzzle"— Lewis Goodall (@lewis_goodall) April 1, 2020
2.5 weeks ago the govt changed UK testing guidelines to end community testing- at the time, the UK's Chief Medical Officer said this 👇
If it's the way we "unlock the puzzle", why the change? https://t.co/uyIxXXTRpb
