Social distancing is taking a sledgehammer to crack a nut, but until we have a vaccine it's the only tool we have available which we know definitely works against coronavirus. The problem is the horrendous collateral damage being done to personal and national finances. It is no surprise to learn that governments are anxious to lift lock downs as soon as they dare. Unfortunately, as soon as restrictions are raised the virus is likely to begin spreading again.
This has been clear from the start. If you have a viral pandemic with no vaccine the inevitable result is a lot of the population will be affected until herd immunity is slowly built up at the cost of thousands, perhaps millions, of lives.
Social distancing is a clumsy tool to control the rate of infection so that health services are not overwhelmed and as many lives as possible can be saved. It reduces the peak and would eradicate the disease entirely if you could apply measure widely and strictly enforce them for long enough. That is not possible in the real world. Scientists and politicians know this and social distancing is designed to be applied temporarily to force the single large peak in cases and deaths into a series of mini peaks spread over a longer period. The total number of deaths in the end may not be that different.
So, The Telegraph this morning has a main front page article with the headline "Social distancing could be indefinite". This is a statement of the obvious rather than a shock.
A vaccine is months away and is in that sense an indefinite period. And until we have a vaccine we will have to keep the sledgehammer handy. From The Telegraph:
"SOCIAL distancing measures may need to remain in place indefinitely, government experts believe, under plans being drawn up in Whitehall which could pave the way for Britain to begin emerging from lockdown next month.
"Officials are considering plans to lift the lockdown “in reverse”, with schools first to reopen, possibly from the beginning of June, followed by shops – but larger social gatherings would be held until last. The elderly and vulnerable have to stay at home for longer.
"However, it is understood people will be asked to consider whether social interactions – such as returning to an office or visiting relations – are necessary, as part of a plan to live with the virus for months or even years."
The Telegraph report says it's hoped a plan to encourage voluntary social distancing will "help stop a second wave from emerging". No, it will not stop a second wave emerging but it will slow down the occurrence of the peaks as well as their size. I wonder if the Brexiteer element of The Telegraph's readership (i.e. 99% of it) realise what keeping restriction in place for months or years might have on Brexit?
I assume much of the report comes from a Twitter thread by Nick Gutteridge published yesterday morning and beginning with this tweet:
The EU talk rationally of a gradual and piecemeal lifting of restrictions with time left between the steps, giving the example of a month, so their effect can be measured. This will need to be accompanied by mass testing and is a attempt to add a tiny element of precision to a process of control where the steering effect is barely connected to the front wheels. Nobody knows how it might work and the intention must be to avoid wild swings, lurching from tight lockdowns to normal life every few weeks.1/ With all the talk of how lockdowns can eventually be ended, the EU Commission this week drew up an internal 'roadmap towards exiting from the Covid-19 pandemic' which provides some interesting and detailed ideas on how the gradual rollback of restrictions could be managed.— Nick Gutteridge (@nick_gutteridge) April 10, 2020
The last few tweets set out the logical plans, intended to be published in broad detail:
The re-start of economic activity must be phased in' with people released to physically return to work in stages based on criteria such as suitability for teleworking, economic importance, shift work etc. 'Not all population should go back to the workplace at the same time'.
Meanwhile 'gatherings of people should be progressively permitted'. Early on shops and schools would reopen but with 'possible gradation' to maintain social distancing, such as limits on the number of people allowed in a store at one time and on student group numbers.
Then cultural and social activities would resume with bars, restaurants, cinemas etc reopening but again with social distancing measures such as attendance caps and restricted opening hours. Bans on mass gatherings such as festivals would stay in place until a later stage.
Finally, individual transport like private cars 'should be allowed ASAP' but 'collective means of transport' like trains and buses 'should be gradually phased in with necessary health-oriented measures'. Restrictions on international travel would also be lifted later on.
All these measures must 'be continuously monitored and preparedness developed for returning to stricter containment measures in case of strong resurgence'. As I said, this is just an early set of draft recommendations but may give us some pointers for the future.
Although not yet published, draft proposals are ready to go. From our own government we will probably get nothing like this as if they don't trust the people to handle reality. But since the cabinet itself treat reality as if it's nitroglycerin that shouldn't surprise us.
Make no mistake, there is to be no 'V' shaped dip in economic output, no rapid bounce back to even the modest fall in GDP figures seen in February (-0.1%). This is going to be an 'L' shaped recovery with a massive downstroke and a very long tail. For Brexiteers I am glad to say, it is a disaster.
