The FT seem to be going after the government's handling of the coronavirus pandemic in a big way. They have been producing estimates for the death toll based on excess deaths and Chris Giles, their economics correspondent, updated their figures again this week following publication of the ONS numbers on Tuesday. The FT now claim the number of deaths up to May 6th is 54,300. Chris Giles tweeted this on Wednesday:
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) May 6, 2020
Update: following the latest official figures from the four UK nations, a cautious estimate of the excess deaths linked to coronavirus up to 6 May is
54,300
Of these 42,700 are official data (facts)
11,600 are estimates based on more up to date hospital records
1/
I don't want to make comparisons with other countries but there will come a time when somebody will do just that, using accurate statistics rigorously applied and Johnson and his government will have to answer for whatever the total ends up at.
The Guardian have got hold of a copy of the Cygnus report from 2016 about readiness for a future pandemic although I haven't read it yet, but last night, on Newsnight, Dame Deidre Hine, the author of the report into the H1N1 epidemic of 2009 in which 457 people died, was interviewed. Her report (HERE) is 168 pages long and was published in 2010. She said last night the most important paragraph was in the foreword and I think this is what she was alluding to:
"The pandemic and the response it generated have provided confirmation of the value of planning and preparedness and have demonstrated that the four UK governments can work together effectively and successfully to meet such an emergency. But the danger of another, more severe, pandemic has not gone away and the governments of the UK must avoid complacency and use this opportunity to learn lessons and make improvements for a future in which resources will be tight. I have therefore sought to identify improvements that could be made so that future pandemic planning can be fine-tuned to address the characteristics of any outbreak"
I think what we can learn from it is that government's do not learn lessons, no matter how many reports are produced. Dame Deidre makes a lot of recommendations and talks about value for money in being prepared. The cost of controlling the Covid-19 pandemic is going to be stupendous and in hindsight a future inquiry is going to conclude the cost of being prepared is very small indeed - whatever it is - and we can begin to see what the cost of not being prepared is (below).
On modelling the report says a couple of things:
"For their part, scientists on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and its secretariat worked very hard to respond effectively. Ministers and officials were keen to understand the likely outcomes as early as possible and this led to unrealistic expectations of modelling, which could not be reliable in the early phases when there was insufficient data. Once better data was available, modelling became extremely accurate"
I think in the beginning there was a reliance on models which were based on early data that proved to be wrong and government policy swung wildly in response. Johnson veering between utter complacency at the beginning of February to panic in mid March.
Of her recommendations, number 14 is a good one:
"Any future Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies should adhere as closely as possible to the established principles of scientific advice to government and should release its descriptive papers and forecasts (as distinct from any policy advice) at regular intervals. This should be clarified in a revised Concept of Operations by summer 2011."
The Guardian have got hold of a copy of the Cygnus report from 2016 about readiness for a future pandemic although I haven't read it yet, but last night, on Newsnight, Dame Deidre Hine, the author of the report into the H1N1 epidemic of 2009 in which 457 people died, was interviewed. Her report (HERE) is 168 pages long and was published in 2010. She said last night the most important paragraph was in the foreword and I think this is what she was alluding to:
"The pandemic and the response it generated have provided confirmation of the value of planning and preparedness and have demonstrated that the four UK governments can work together effectively and successfully to meet such an emergency. But the danger of another, more severe, pandemic has not gone away and the governments of the UK must avoid complacency and use this opportunity to learn lessons and make improvements for a future in which resources will be tight. I have therefore sought to identify improvements that could be made so that future pandemic planning can be fine-tuned to address the characteristics of any outbreak"
I think what we can learn from it is that government's do not learn lessons, no matter how many reports are produced. Dame Deidre makes a lot of recommendations and talks about value for money in being prepared. The cost of controlling the Covid-19 pandemic is going to be stupendous and in hindsight a future inquiry is going to conclude the cost of being prepared is very small indeed - whatever it is - and we can begin to see what the cost of not being prepared is (below).
On modelling the report says a couple of things:
"For their part, scientists on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) and its secretariat worked very hard to respond effectively. Ministers and officials were keen to understand the likely outcomes as early as possible and this led to unrealistic expectations of modelling, which could not be reliable in the early phases when there was insufficient data. Once better data was available, modelling became extremely accurate"
I think in the beginning there was a reliance on models which were based on early data that proved to be wrong and government policy swung wildly in response. Johnson veering between utter complacency at the beginning of February to panic in mid March.
Of her recommendations, number 14 is a good one:
"Any future Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies should adhere as closely as possible to the established principles of scientific advice to government and should release its descriptive papers and forecasts (as distinct from any policy advice) at regular intervals. This should be clarified in a revised Concept of Operations by summer 2011."
The fact that the government is telling us they are following the scientific advice while not revealing what it is has cause deep suspicion, especially among the news media.
The BBC report on the Bank of England's publication of their assessment of the likely impact of coronavirus on the economy. It is warning that we are heading towards the "sharpest recession on record" with the economy shrinking by 14% this year.
The 2009 financial crisis saw a GDP drop of 4.2% and a decade of belt-tightening.
There is no doubt government finances will suffer a massive blow this year and probably next year as well. Borrowing and debt will jump like never before. It is the clearest possible reason for extending the Brexit transition but Johnson is being utterly reckless about it, as he has been about everything else in his entire life.
Phil Hogan.the EU Trade Commissioner has claimed the British are getting ready to bury the costs of Brexit under the mountain of debt being piled up because of Covid-19. If so it will be unforgivable but I wouldn't put anything past Cummings the "career psychopath".
Meanwhile, James Crisp, The Telegraph's Brussels correspondent, has been speaking to EU diplomats who say European leaders are not going to step in and save the trade talks by overriding Barnier's mandate and offering concessions. They are tightening the screw. We are set for a roller coaster six months:
The 2009 financial crisis saw a GDP drop of 4.2% and a decade of belt-tightening.
There is no doubt government finances will suffer a massive blow this year and probably next year as well. Borrowing and debt will jump like never before. It is the clearest possible reason for extending the Brexit transition but Johnson is being utterly reckless about it, as he has been about everything else in his entire life.
Phil Hogan.the EU Trade Commissioner has claimed the British are getting ready to bury the costs of Brexit under the mountain of debt being piled up because of Covid-19. If so it will be unforgivable but I wouldn't put anything past Cummings the "career psychopath".
Meanwhile, James Crisp, The Telegraph's Brussels correspondent, has been speaking to EU diplomats who say European leaders are not going to step in and save the trade talks by overriding Barnier's mandate and offering concessions. They are tightening the screw. We are set for a roller coaster six months:
EU leaders won't intervene to break Brexit trade talks deadlock https://t.co/y8klHAiw6q— James Crisp (@JamesCrisp6) May 6, 2020
