Monday 4 May 2020

The Irish border issue hots up

If the NI protocol is anything to go by, the future relationship - assuming we negotiate one - promises to be a fractious affair stretching on for decades. The two sides are arguing about what was agreed last October in a sign that rushed deals are not the best way to proceed if you are not masters of the detail - as we clearly are not  - and the EU are.  One of the issues concerns the EU request to have an office in Belfast, twice refused now having been welcomed in 2019 under Theresa May. RTE have a report HERE.

Dmitry Grozoubinski tweeted about the underlying problem:
The two sides last October pushed the details of how the EU would supervise the border - which in January next year essentially becomes their border managed by a third country - to the Joint Committee which has only met once last week. The British claimed the request for an office in Belfast for EU technical staff came out of the blue, although RTE have got copies of letters from the Foreign Office from March 2019, welcoming the EU request to have a base in Belfast.

As you can see from the tweet the EU has the right to be present during any of the activities of UK authorities who will actually be doing the work. It sounds like an old demarcation dispute, a throwback to the 1960s but politically necessary to satisfy Brexiteers notion of sovereignty. But efficient it is not.

At the moment there is a stand off between the two sides.

The EU's technical note put out last week is a pointed reminder to the UK government to get on with implementing the NI protocol - something they are patently failing to do, deliberately it seems.

The note sets out every area and every commitment already made by the UK (quite a long list) and says:
"To avoid disruptions of business activity, the United Kingdom should urgently engage with the business community in Northern Ireland, as businesses must be able to prepare for the new requirements well in advance. The Commission services are available to provide any assistance that may be required."

Businesses in NI know nothing of these details from official sources with less than eight months to go. It seems to me that it is an impossibly short time frame to get all the extra infrastructure and systems up and running and tested by December. And this is without persuading the business community about the huge new impediments to business across the Irish Sea next year. It is an explosive issue.

The note ends with this:

Next steps

"The Commission expects the United Kingdom to provide the requested details, and detailed timelines, on the implementation measures it intends to take as a matter of urgency. The Commission also expects the United Kingdom to enter into technical implementation discussions with the relevant Commission services immediately.

"The Commission will continuously report to the European Parliament and the Member States on the progress of the implementation of the Protocol. As laid down in the negotiating directives adopted by the Council in respect of the future relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom, the negotiations of the envisaged partnership are premised on the effective implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement and of its three Protocols." 

In other words unless all the measures are in place don't expect a trade deal.

The UK government is getting itself deeper and deeper into the mire on this one. Last Week Liz Truss tweeted about talks getting underway with the USA on a future trade deal but seem to forget the House of Representatives must ratify any trade deal and unless the conditions set out in the NI protocol are satisfied there will be no ratification.

Johnson will soon find out the limitation of our new found sovereignty. It is caught between a hard place and another hard place.
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