We are at that time of year when the government 'leak' a document with all the gory details of what might happen in the event of a no deal Brexit. Last August it was Operation Yellowhammer this year it's the doomsday dossier. Both came out courtesy of Murdoch owned papers. I don't know if that's significant or not. It is, in The Sun's words, a "horror show" but I wouldn't worry, it is never going to happen.
It is intended (a) to put pressure on the EU; (b) to show the UK government knows what the consequences are and is prepared for the disruption; (c) for domestic consumption to bolster ERG types into thinking the government is serious and (d) to be able, later on, to point to the chaos the thin deal they eventually sign up to has avoided. It has no downside - but only IF you do not intend for it to happen.
If the government was serious and there was the remotest chance of a fraction of what's in the dossier actually coming about Johnson and Gove are going to look pretty ridiculous having shown the public that they were warned about it all four months previously. They would be in the same invidious position that Gavin Williamson is in at the moment over the A-level fiasco.
If you haven't seen the Sun's coverage (and I assume you haven't!) it lists all sorts of stuff some of it straight out of Yellowhammer, including France "forcing mandatory controls on UK goods from day one” and between 40 and 70 per cent of hauliers travelling across the Channel not being ready. The only difference is that in Yellowhammer it was 40 to 60 per cent. In other words there are fewer hauliers said to be ready than in 2019! It's not only the negotiations that are going backwards.
The added complication of covid-19 is now included with its massive knock-on effects on the economy and the risk of a second wave breaking out in winter. To add to that a flu epidemic and flooding is thrown in. The Sun haven't published it in full so we don't get to see if a plague of locusts might arrive as well.
Some quotes from The Sun:
That could see flow between Dover and Calais down 45 per cent for three months, triggering long queues of HGVs in Kent.
The leak comes as the latest round of EU trade talks ended with warnings the negotiations are “going backwards” and the chances of No Deal in December is rising.
If the restrictions on trade sparked by a No Deal scenario were combined with a bad winter of flood, flu and Covid-19, hospitals could be overwhelmed.
And parts of Britain may be hit by shortages of power and petrol as 8,500 trucks get stuck at Dover.
In Whitehall’s “reasonable worst case scenario” animal disease might rip through the countryside due to shortages of medicines and the Channel Islands could need military airdrops to avoid running out of food.
It warns the Navy might be needed to stop vigilante British fisherman clashing with hundreds of illegal European fishing boat incursions.
Apparently, into the mix goes Town Halls going bust in a second Covid wave, sparking social care chaos with "public disorder, shortages and price hikes" plus troops may have to be drafted on to the streets to help the police in the worst-case scenario — 1,500 are already on stand by apparently.
Supplies of food and fuel are all under threat this Christmas if Dover becomes blocked but to show how reasonable we are, Downing Street is "pushing hard for a trade deal" but is making contingency plans for an “unruly” exit from the EU transition period at the end of December.
There are plans to use the Royal Navy to fend off illegal EU fishermen. The government would certainly have its hands full IF it ever happened. So, it won't.
The government - probably Cummings - has leaked it all deliberately and it will NEVER happen. But time is short, look out for a "break through" soon.
