The row over the UK Internal Market Bill (UKIM) and the plan to legislate to override the Withdrawal Agreement took several turns yesterday and became both grave and farcical. Downing Street, by which I mean Dominic Cummings of course, seems to have take leave of its senses and threatens to dynamite itself along with the rest of the country. The Cabinet and the Tory party are starting to appear like the inmates of an asylum for the terminally stupid.
Let's look at what Johnson's done and plans to do:
- UKIM breaks international law - this is accepted by most observers both here and abroad, only our own Attorney General appears to think otherwise
- The PM has confirmed beyond doubt that he doesn't read or understand agreements that he signs on our behalf and which he prevents parliament scrutinising properly
- He is reneging on the deal he won an election selling as a 'great' deal
- He fired MPs from his own party for not supporting the deal
- He got his own MPs to vote unanimously for the deal
- Has now made a trade deal with the EU impossible
- He has made a trade deal with the USA impossible
- He has united opposition to him even from Brexiteers like Lord Howard
The European Parliament issued a statement yesterday afternoon that they will not ratify any future trade deal unless the NI protocol and the rest of the WA is observed. So, this isn't even a matter just for the EU27 leaders any more So much for the EU being undemocratic - note our own parliament probably won't get to approve the deal!
These are grave matters and at 5:30pm, perhaps recognising the growing rebellion in his own party the PM held a zoom call with Tory MPs where, according to Peter Bone on Newsnight, there was no dissent! Bone said this even though they were all muted and not allowed to question the prime minister afterwards so it's not clear how he knew.
But it was also a farce because there were constant communication issues with Zoom and eventually it all broke down anyway. This was only one act in the farce, there were plenty of others.
This morning's Telegraph has an article by him where he actually says, "If we fail to pass this Bill, or if we weaken its protections, then we will in fact reduce the chances of getting that Canada-style deal."
I assume he or someone else was writing this as the EP parties were meeting to agree a joint position which they did with a statement later which unequivocally contradicted him:
"Should the UK authorities breach – or threaten to breach – the Withdrawal Agreement, through the United Kingdom Internal Market Bill in its current form or in any other way, the European Parliament will, under no circumstances, ratify any agreement between the EU and the UK."
In his article Johnson claims our negotiators have discovered "a serious misunderstanding about the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement" which are apparently so bad it gives an international organisation the "theoretical power to carve up our country" by imposing a "full-scale trade border" down the Irish sea using "an extreme interpretation of the Northern Ireland protocol."
Remember this was an agreement HE negotiated and signed. And now it turns out he was told all this back in January this year, according to the FT.
The whole episode smacks of serious incompetence of the kind we expect from Johnson. The WA is a treaty and the EU will expect every detail to be strictly observed and it will be. NI will have to live with it for years and years.
So, we know what happened this week, but was it worth it? Will it have the desired effect?
Apparently not. Dr Richard North on his blog this morning says even if the UKIM Bill becomes law it will have no effect anyway. I have read similar comments from others so I am willing to accept (a) it won't impact GB-NI trade at all and (b) the NI protocol already contained plenty of safeguards that the UK can use to avoid what the PM suggests might happen. In other words, it's all a pointless row.
Apparently not. Dr Richard North on his blog this morning says even if the UKIM Bill becomes law it will have no effect anyway. I have read similar comments from others so I am willing to accept (a) it won't impact GB-NI trade at all and (b) the NI protocol already contained plenty of safeguards that the UK can use to avoid what the PM suggests might happen. In other words, it's all a pointless row.
The BBC's Jon Sopel tweeted:
I cannot exaggerate the bewilderment in Washington over what UK government is doing over #GoodFridayAgreement. Why, a senior official asked me, is Britain doing something that will lead to a no deal Brexit, and result in no trade deal with the US either?— Jon Sopel (@BBCJonSopel) September 11, 2020
It is perhaps all designed to distract and to force parliament to amend the bill and give Cummings/Johnson afterwards their excuse for the capitulation. That or plain incompetence. They don't know what they're doing.
Let me say again, we will not leave without a deal for all the reasons I have given previously, the political and economic damage it would do to this government and this country. There will be a climbdown but I expect things to get worse before that point comes. Johnson and co are seriously deranged.
But the overriding reason is self interest and self preservation and the knowledge that a no-deal Brexit was always our strongest card. Notwithstanding the fact that the impact will be felt far stronger and be far more painful in the UK than in Europe, it would also damage the EU. From that point of view it had a certain limited potency.
However, the instant we leave the transition without a deal the threat disappears. We can't threaten to leave without a deal twice. We would have hurt the EU but suffered excruciating pain ourselves.
While ever we can keep the trade talks going we can maintain the threat of no deal so I am still convinced we will get a very poor deal, sold once again as "great" or "ground breaking" but nonetheless keeping us within the EU's orbit in many ways.
Initially, it will look good until the details emerge - and off we'll go again in the endless Brexit cycle.
