Wednesday 2 September 2020

Crunch time is finally here

Well we are finally getting to the crunch point. There is just about four weeks to get a legal text agreed - according to a Commons library briefing note and an EU draft timetable, to allow ratification in Europe. An initial text must be agreed by "early October" in order to give time for translation, legal checking and revisions to be made ready for the Council meeting on 15-16 October. This is with both sides still miles apart on substantive issues and Johnson once again threatening to walk away.

Those of us who have followed the tribulations of Brexit will be familiar with all the belligerence and recognise exactly the same stuff from last August.  Issuing threats has become an annual ritual in Downing Street. Many of the mainstream newspapers believed it at the time and many still do, either accepting it without question or playing along to help the Brexit cause.

We are simply waiting for the climb down to come - and in my own mind at least there is no doubt about it. We will not leave without a deal.

But in the Commons briefing note I see:

"This timetable is based on the assumption that the agreement will not be “mixed” (covering both EU and Member State competences). A mixed agreement would also require ratification within each Member State, although aspects could be applied provisionally ahead of full ratification."

This has intrigued me for some time. David Frost has repeatedly said all we are asking for is a Canada style FTA - but this was a 'mixed' agreement and had to be ratified by all member states and regional assemblies.  As the note says, some parts could be implemented provisionally but this could lead to delays and even the whole deal being scrapped.

There is often some disagreement about what competences are reserved for the Commission and what  are the responsibility of member states and how they interact.  An EU website explains:

Exclusive competences - areas in which the EU alone is able to legislate and adopt binding acts are in the following areas:  

  • customs union;
  • the establishing of competition rules necessary for the functioning of the internal market;
  • monetary policy for euro area countries;
  • conservation of marine biological resources under the common fisheries policy;
  • common commercial policy;
  • conclusion of international agreements under certain conditions.

Shared competences where member states exercise their own competence where the EU does not do so, or has decided not to exercise, its own competence. Shared competence between the EU and EU countries applies in the following areas:

  • internal market;
  • social policy, but only for aspects specifically defined in the Treaty;
  • economic, social and territorial cohesion (regional policy);
  • agriculture and fisheries (except conservation of marine biological resources);
  • environment;
  • consumer protection;
  • transport;
  • trans-European networks;
  • energy;
  • area of freedom, security and justice;
  • shared safety concerns in public health matters, limited to the aspects defined in the TFEU;
  • research, technological development, space;
  • development cooperation and humanitarian aid.

There seems quite a bit of cross-over to me and plenty of areas where member states may object to the Commission and EU parliament alone being able to sign and ratify a treaty. It may be a big issue in the next few months.

All those years when we were told unelected bureaucrats control it all may well be exposed if a member state objects.  It shows how powerless the Commission is in practice. Barnier has had his hands tied from the outset.

Curtailing the time frame may play well in the Tory party and among the right wing UK press but in truth it has limited the EU's time to negotiate any flexibility in the mandate.  Barnier has to make sure all the EU leaders, MEPs and member states are kept informed and on board and he is held rigidly in place by all the interlocking and contradictory vested interests of 27 member states. He has very little room for manoeuvre.

The government meanwhile is having new barriers installed on the M20 to prepare for possible queuing after Brexit. 
It is intended as a show that we are serious about leaving without a deal but it won't have any effect on Barnier.  And controlling trucks in Kent after a no deal Brexit would be the least of the government worries. Food and medicine supplies would run out quite quickly and what happened this year when supermarket shelves emptied would look like a tea party.
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