The ignoramus David Davis revealed once again yesterday the sheer depth of his blind refusal to recognise the damage Brexit is set to cause to the British economy. He Tweeted a link to a report from the German insurance giant Allianze about the cost of a no deal Brexit to the EU and Germany. The report is HERE and his Twitter thread below. This time he gets the figures correct but quotes them very selectively - as several people have pointed out to him.
His Tweet starts here:
1. Interesting report from German insurance company Allianz showing a no deal Brexit would cost EU countries €33bn in exports. Germany would be hit the hardest with an €8.2bn loss, followed by the Netherlands and France. https://t.co/3bAM7vuntO
— David Davis (@DavidDavisMP) October 27, 2020
His extract is straight out of the report's opening paragraph, which is this:
"The odds for a no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020 have considerably increased to 45%. While we do still expect a last-minute compromise, given the social, political and economic consequences of such an outcome on top of the continuing Covid-19 crisis in the UK and across Europe in general, a Hard Brexit could cost as much as EUR33bn in annual EU exports, with Germany (EUR8.2bn), the Netherlands (EUR4.8bn) and France (EUR3.6bn) hit the hardest."
Had he read further, he would have noticed two other points which should have set alarm bells ringing instead of picking up his phone to tweet about it. The reports adds:
"Taking into account the rise in import prices as well as the import sensitivity to prices (on average 0.4), we calculate that Germany could lose as much as EUR8.2bn of its exports to the UK in value (11.2% of its exports to the UK and 0.6% of its total exports)."
And:
"...the UK could see a -5% contraction in GDP and a -15% drop in exports, besides inflation beyond 5% for at least six months."
Note the loss of total exports for Germany (0.6%) compared to the loss of total exports for the UK (15%). In other words, the UK's exports will be hit 25 times worse than Germany! Davis says the Allianz report "sounds broadly accurate but it is probably an underestimate. This is only the latest in a series of reports showing the huge damage of no deal to the EU27."
Yes it does show the "huge damage" to the EU27 - BUT it is as nothing compared to the damage we would suffer which he somehow forgets or simply doesn't see. Either he really is as "thick as mince" as Dominic Cummings once claimed or he is being wilfully dishonest and misleading people about the impact of leaving without a trade deal.
It is why there will be a deal.
