Well, on Monday I suggested it might be a good time to call Johnson's bluff. Yesterday, Bloomberg carried a report suggesting that is precisely what they intend to do. Two EU sources told Bloomberg that the EU had no intention of proposing any concessions before the 15 October deadline set by Johnson when he would decide if there was any chance of a deal. In other words, Johnson will need to decide if a deal is possible based on what is on offer now.
The report says:
"The bloc is ready to let U.K. talks drag on into November or December, and even take a chance on Johnson pulling the plug on the deliberations rather than compromise on its red lines, according to a senior EU diplomat. The high-stakes strategy was confirmed by a second EU official."
And:
"Missing the deadline would leave Johnson with a dilemma: breaking off talks would set the U.K. on course to crash out of the EU single market on Dec. 31, leaving British businesses grappling with quotas and tariffs; but if he stays at the table, exposing his threats as bluster, he’ll be in a weakened position for the final stretch of talks."
Brussels is not going to collapse the talks under any circumstances and will take the chance that Johnson won't either. The UK government is totally unprepared for 1 January and has far too much on its plate. The economy is on its knees, there is a pile of legislation still to go through parliament and coronavirus is well into a second wave now.
A lot of disruption will come even if he agrees a bare bones deal but this would be multiplied by a no deal exit. For some sectors it would be existential. Nissan and Toyota are already calling on the government to 'compensate' them for tariffs paid on our EU exports. Farmers would no doubt do the same. But this would flout WTO rules so it's out of the question anyway.
If the PM decides to walk out he will have to explain to workers in Sunderland and the West Midlands plus thousands of farmers why he did so, throwing their sectors to the wolves, in order to meet a totally artificial deadline that he himself set.
Here is a man, a known liar, whose word is worth nothing apparently destroying the livelihoods of thousands of people in order to keep to a political deadline and to refuse to continue talks while the other side remain at the table. It would take a bit of explaining. Many would believe it, some would welcome it but come January or February he would be presiding over a self-made disaster.
No, I think Johnson will not walk out and he will keep talking and he will eventually conceded the LPF issues, governance, fishing and everything else. It is perfectly clear to those of us who have been watching it all unfold these past four years that the EU held most of the cards at the outset and have slowly gathered the rest as time went on.
From data equivalence, financial regulation equivalence, cabotage, aviation safety and a host of other matters the EU will decide what our exporters can and cannot do. With the stroke of a pen, the EU could at any time with just 30 days notice, end the right of City firms to function in Europe, for one example. And they will always hold that right.
They have a legally watertight treaty in the WA and if necessary could take us to the the ECJ or the International Court where they would win, regardless of what the Internal Market bill says.
If the Good Friday Agreement is threatened the USA will never sign a trade deal with us which would be a serious political blow even if in trade terms it isn't worth much anyway.
A few more indicators from Bloomberg: EU27 leaders think Johnson needs to become more personally involved, a sure sign he hasn't been following the details and will probably blunder disastrously in at the end as he did with the WA. And according to a summary in an EU document, "no significant progress could be recorded with respect to the key chapters” during last week’s negotiating round."
"The video call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Saturday was the first since June and French President Emmanuel Macron is the only major leader he has spoken to since negotiations started in March. One EU official said Johnson would have to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel before a deal could be done."
Amazing, eh?
I think the EU have played it well right from the off. And in the next few weeks it will all become blindingly obvious. But Johnson will be roasted by the ERG.
