The BBC's Katya Adler tweeted last night that Barnier intends to travel to Berlin today to meet Angela Merkel followed by a vist to London later this week. This follows presumably from the virtual meeting between Johnson and Von der Leyen on Saturday. Adler notes that there wasn't a joint statement issued by the two leaders "trumpeting details" of compromise solutions and I think it shows just how far apart the two sides are on so many issues.
Her tweet is here:
EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier heads to Berlin tomorrow morning for a meeting with Angela Merkel. No trip scheduled to France the following day. Possibly to London later in the week, I’m told /1— Katya Adler (@BBCkatyaadler) October 4, 2020
She says there is no trip to France scheduled, presumably because the French position is known and quite hard line. Johnson still seems to be suggesting we could "prosper mightily" under a no deal scenario as he told Andrew Marr yesterday, as if he is somehow taking pity on the EU and prepared to concede a deal to help them out.
So far, the EU have taken the position that they do not want to be the side that walks out of the talks and this was probably a wise move. However, I do wonder if the time has come to call Johnson's bluff and begin to hint that the EU cannot move further and unless the UK agrees to some sort of binding LPF measures (or whatever is the main sticking point) there can be no deal. Perhaps Merkel should say this or at least make a public announcement that businesses in the EU should now assume there will not be a deal in place by 1 January.
I think we must be approaching the moment when something big has to change. Adler says one EU diplomat told her "he thinks Michel Barnier will have to push EU leaders to show more flexibility. Angela Merkel seemed to nod to that on Friday. The U.K. will need to move considerably on its current official positions on level playing field and governance."
It would be a surprise to me if the EU showed "more flexibility."
There is a piece of bad news coming out every day about how poorly prepared we are on this side of The Channel. Some businesses are upping sticks every week and moving into the EU. Others are starting to issue grave warnings about the consequences of a deal let alone no deal. You would have to be blind not to see your opposite number is in a very weak position. If the EU offer concessions now they will look the weaker side.
Continuing to talk down the clock would perhaps be a better option since the deadline is a self-imposed one and I really can't see Gove explaining how he plunged the nation into chaos during a nationwide pandemic and risked the break up of the UK simply because Johnson had set a deadline. I think Barnier knows he is dealing with a small cabal of nutjobs in Downing Street holding a gun to the heads of the British people. But he cannot allow them to get away with it.
Most worrying in Adler's twitter thread for the fishing industry is this line:
"Fish is not THE key issue but it is a key bargaining chip and do [sic] will be agreed close to last"
Fishermen who genuinely believed the government had got their interests at heart are going to be sorely disappointed. There were and always will be a bargaining chip.
I expect by this time next week negotiators will be in the "tunnel" - I don't believe an agreement will be available for the EU summit on October 14-15 but an outline will be ready soon after and I also think the agreement will include another extension to the transition period.
This week promises to be a moment of clarity.
