Sunday 25 October 2020

The Gove doctrine

I have been re-reading a speech given by Gove to a Vote Leave rally in April 2016 and marvelling at the sheer naivety  of it all and yet Gove, along with Cummings, was supposed to be the thinker in the campaign. There is a particular line in it which was later used in a Vote Leave pdf and has become somewhat famous. This is it: "There is a free trade zone stretching from Iceland to Turkey that all European nations have access to, regardless of whether they are in or out of the euro or EU. After we vote to leave we will remain in this zone."  I confess I didn't realise this came originally from him.

In the same speech, a bit later on, he also says this:

"What will enrage, and disorientate, EU elites is the UK’s success outside the Union. Regaining control over our laws, taxes and borders and forging new trade deals while also shedding unnecessary regulation will enhance our competitive advantage over other EU nations."

In other words we would remain in the single market unencumbered by the rules and streak ahead of all the other members. 

Imagine being entered for an egg and spoon race. One that you have never won but are desperate to do well. There are 28 competitors going to be lined up. You suggest to your backers that a cunning plan would be to withdraw and then negotiate re-entry but with the freedom to run without either the egg or the spoon! What a terrific idea, say half of your supporters, while the other half say don't be ridiculous, that's impossible. 

Anyway, the decision is made, you withdraw and are now engaged in that renegotiation. The other 27 were at first mystified.

In years gone by there had been a lot of problems with competitors bringing different sorts of both eggs and spoons. Some even took to gluing the two together to secure and advantage! But for years now the identical "exact same" spoons were provided to all competitors under common rules and the eggs carefully selected for size and weight. Everyone was equal. But now you want to run without either, 

You point out that the egg and spoon are simply a handicap and you can be much quicker without. They counter that the race isn't about pure speed, it's about other things too. Practice, balance, dexterity, innovation and equality.

Your request is refused. You threaten a tantrum. You'll cry and make yourself sick unless you are allowed to run under your own rules. The organisers offer a compromise. You don't need to use the egg and spoon provided - but you must have something which is similar and equivalent.

You have in mind a very large ladle with a ball bearing.  The organisers are thinking of a fish slice with a ping-pong ball. This is where we are at the moment with the level playing field, state aid and governance issues. I think it's obvious how difficult it will be to get the EU27 to agree to something which clearly advantages you compared to them.

Whatever is agreed, it cannot and will not be equivalent to or as easy to handle as the standard egg and spoon. This is a given.

And yet Gove in 2016 actually thought this would be possible and doable. He even thought some of the other competitors (German car makers, French farmers and Italian designers) would pressurise the organisers to allow him to gain an advantage over them.  How naïve can you get?

The speech - or slight variations of it - was used by others including Johnson, to persuade millions to vote for Brexit. It essentially developed into the Brexit doctrine. But now, as dawn is about to break over what some wag on Twitter (there are plenty of them!) calls the unlit uplands, we can see how stupid Gove and his idea was.  

Can Gove admit he was wrong?  I suspect not and at the moment as we see firms flee The City with trillions of pounds of assets, exporters rush to train 50,000 form fillers and lorry parks spreading across the country we begin to see just how much Brexit is going to cost us - to make ourselves poorer and weaker and to save his face.